Lol · resolved market
MSI Play-in: FURIA vs. GAM
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e7d362932892ff6f9c920695be3e48c34ffe796186a51f039fbed206497192d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- GAMof FURIA, GAM
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf557…18debacked FURIA | 50c | 6,982$3,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,491.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa613…d494backed GAM | 50c | 5,194$2,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,592.73 | 205 | 57.1%117 W · 88 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed GAM | 47c | 4,323$2,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,297.01 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed GAM | 50c | 4,239$2,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,114.96 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked FURIA | 49c | 3,826$1,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,874.54 | 417 | 52.5%219 W · 198 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed FURIA | 51c | 2,560$1,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,304.99 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac53…6133backed GAM | 50c | 2,546$1,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,273.21 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked FURIA | 50c | 1,852$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.76 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa156…8805backed FURIA | 51c | 1,662$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed FURIA | 47c | 1,630$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked FURIA | 50c | 1,508$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.8 | 217 | 40.1%87 W · 130 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked FURIA | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 508 | 48.4%246 W · 262 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked FURIA | 50c | 1,473$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.14 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed GAM | 68c | 1,213$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.98 | 259 | 52.9%137 W · 122 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb142…cd11backed GAM | 48c | 888$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.76 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8229…dfbfbacked GAM | 53c | 849.99$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.5 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked FURIA | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 518 | 52.7%273 W · 245 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…db6ebacked GAM | 47c | 490.53$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.98 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked FURIA | 53c | 444$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.32 | 1,609 | 48.4%779 W · 830 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed GAM | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.15 | 600 | 53.2%319 W · 281 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed FURIA | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf060…b07abacked GAM | 49c | 364.99$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.53 | 111 | 27.9%31 W · 80 L | -11.1wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c55…e0f8backed GAM | 53c | 243.31$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.47 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed FURIA | 47c | 211$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.17 | 420 | 55.2%232 W · 188 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc8…e126backed FURIA | 40c | 199.95$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa856…3964backed FURIA | 54c | 183.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c9…d707backed GAM | 58c | 160$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.8 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed FURIA | 52c | 150.09$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.11 | 1,136 | 63.1%717 W · 419 L | +51.0wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…da5dbacked FURIA | 42c | 150$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +27%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9df…d8bcbacked FURIA | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…60e7backed GAM | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 168 | 28.6%48 W · 120 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d88…8d05backed GAM | 49c | 97.96$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.96 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked GAM | 70c | 93.53$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 174 | 66.7%116 W · 58 L | +9.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0466…1395backed GAM | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed FURIA | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 435 | 39.5%172 W · 263 L | -24.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x736f…d0c5backed GAM | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked FURIA | 45c | 54.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 661 | 16.5%109 W · 552 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed GAM | 49c | 53.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 2,226 | 37.5%834 W · 1,392 L | -29.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa858…4b9fbacked GAM | 51c | 52.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2e…3bc1backed FURIA | 42c | 44.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f48…c6adbacked GAM | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked FURIA | 48c | 38.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2af2…3965backed FURIA | 75c | 34.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c38…1218backed GAM | 45c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 214 | 48.1%103 W · 111 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed GAM | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 140 | 44.3%62 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.