Lol · resolved market
League of Legends: Natus Vincere vs. Karmine Corp
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce4755aa01d260f4b2e3fef6fa501aba013d0a4ee74fdc346e4b8c9afccf4fbf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Karmine Corpof Natus Vincere, Karmine Corp
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,473
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,047
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,473 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Natus Vincere | 0c | 11,215$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 898 | 10.7%96 W · 802 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Natus Vincere | 9c | 7,976$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.21 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…3eeabacked Natus Vincere | 9c | 3,829$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.61 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Natus Vincere | 18c | 3,261$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 669 | 47.8%320 W · 349 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b1…d224backed Natus Vincere | 3c | 1,358$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 406 | 51.7%210 W · 196 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…8cc5backed Natus Vincere | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1,180 | 44.5%525 W · 655 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…3ea6backed Natus Vincere | 15c | 545.73$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.86 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…3180backed Natus Vincere | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd93…bd6fbacked Natus Vincere | 14c | 488.55$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…d9d7backed Natus Vincere | 11c | 417.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…60e7backed Natus Vincere | 8c | 409.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 168 | 28.6%48 W · 120 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e9…c21ebacked Natus Vincere | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7f…4b5dbacked Natus Vincere | 10c | 317.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 323 | 50.8%164 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2a…5ccebacked Natus Vincere | 8c | 280$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 94 | 30.9%29 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x736f…d0c5backed Natus Vincere | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…ed8fbacked Natus Vincere | 11c | 261.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3f…ff4bbacked Natus Vincere | 12c | 255.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Natus Vincere | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked Natus Vincere | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Natus Vincere | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dfa3backed Natus Vincere | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7703…34b9backed Natus Vincere | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x639e…a9d4backed Natus Vincere | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…2b06backed Natus Vincere | 7c | 199.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 480 | 35.4%170 W · 310 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…6cdbbacked Natus Vincere | 10c | 198.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…5bd1backed Natus Vincere | 15c | 188.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…4bcabacked Natus Vincere | 11c | 183$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 111 | 47.7%53 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…4ef7backed Natus Vincere | 11c | 180$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Natus Vincere | 9c | 167.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfe…fb7dbacked Natus Vincere | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x569f…5561backed Natus Vincere | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x248c…5834backed Natus Vincere | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec63…85ddbacked Natus Vincere | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07be…8bf9backed Natus Vincere | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.