TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6fc7…8ef2

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
42
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: MLB, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category MLB at 51 out of 100; worst NBA at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2025, EDT1963.2%12 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick74cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Thunder vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.47
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$3.42
Thunder vs. Pacersbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$134.98
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the Western Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$42.59
Timberwolves vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$6.32
Nuggets vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Knicks vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$48.02
Cavaliers vs. Heatbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$5.64
Celtics vs. Magicbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$7.03
Thunder vs. Grizzliesbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT+25%+$4.37
Grizzlies vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT+37%+$7.4
Kings vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$47.95
Bucks vs. Pelicansbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$10.07
Nets vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Hawks vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Celtics vs. Trail Blazersbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$13.33
Nets vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$13.33
Celtics vs. Heatbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$6.32
Hornets vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$6.67
All 19 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 23, 2025, EST1450%7 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick58cpaid+1.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+28.2%+$14.1
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+25%+$10.02
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$90
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+525%+$52.5
Will the next Government of Australia be a Labor minority?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will the next Government of Australia be a Labor majority?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$29.55
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$45
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
Will Trump say "Percent" 5+ times during Carney visit on May 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$5.32
Will the Liberal–National Coalition win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+40.3%+$34.53
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will CDU/CSU win more seats than SPD and Greens?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2025, EST+25%+$2.5
All 14 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2025, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Astros vs. Rockiesbacked Astros · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$20.54
Athletics vs. Yankeesbacked Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$15.82
Athletics vs. Yankeesbacked Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$9.63
Orioles vs. Red Soxbacked Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 4 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Oct 5, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Buccaneers vs. Seahawksbacked Buccaneers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$7.15
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sharks vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2025, EDT+25%+$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Dec 9, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-12-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+25%+$5
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.