TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Orioles vs. Red Sox

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Oriolesof Orioles, Red Sox
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$430,995
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$424,296

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $430,995 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4259…936fbacked Red Sox59c124,380$73,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73,033.221850%9 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae36…8fb5backed Orioles43c122,240$52,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69,845.886556.9%37 W · 28 L+7.3wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+25.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x264c…8250backed Orioles51c38,816$19,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,070.18944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1484…cafebacked Orioles49c28,562$14,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,448.532236.4%8 W · 14 L-4.1wins-0.18per pick55cpaid-32.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Orioles52c18,232$9,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,711.062,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Red Sox52c17,292$9,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,039.4915745.2%71 W · 86 L-0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Orioles59c12,557$7,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,099.4955053.6%295 W · 255 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xef75…5d78backed Orioles53c7,413$3,938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,475.211,35845.9%624 W · 734 L+41.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa320…8232backed Red Sox56c3,812$2,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,134.9428447.5%135 W · 149 L-20.9wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc84…3e67backed Red Sox60c3,655$2,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,178.646645.5%30 W · 36 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Red Sox48c3,631$1,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,739.8740629.1%118 W · 288 L-2.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd12d…d764backed Red Sox56c3,218$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8003351.5%17 W · 16 L-4.5wins-0.14per pick65cpaid-20.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1290…5269backed Orioles52c3,000$1,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,435.71944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f93…e313backed Red Sox53c3,000$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,59015543.2%67 W · 88 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Orioles43c2,488$1,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,409.659,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f2…5495backed Red Sox50c2,400$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2009759.8%58 W · 39 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefaf…26a1backed Red Sox53c1,893$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00023938.5%92 W · 147 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Orioles50c1,607$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$807.3617136.8%63 W · 108 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe81…5fe9backed Red Sox56c1,500$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840757.1%4 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick71cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ecd…a578backed Red Sox46c1,451$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.342425%6 W · 18 L-3.4wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-55%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked Orioles44c1,444$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$805.3633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-33.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x982a…48aebacked Orioles51c1,392$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.161050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc91a…c6b8backed Red Sox37c1,310$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.610746.7%50 W · 57 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x70f8…d0d5backed Red Sox63c1,235$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.3421356.3%120 W · 93 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Orioles46c1,131$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.341,46644.1%647 W · 819 L+44.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fae…3488backed Orioles58c1,075$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.3218349.2%90 W · 93 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Orioles48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52033349.5%165 W · 168 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Red Sox55c946.43$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52519239.1%75 W · 117 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x48b5…10aebacked Red Sox54c926.43$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Red Sox52c900$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46825416.1%41 W · 213 L-15.3wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-57.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0cd7…cd86backed Red Sox54c823.06$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.131030%3 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-35.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd0bf…e4a1backed Orioles50c740$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3702955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+20.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ccf…2fedbacked Red Sox54c719.37$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.4639160.4%236 W · 155 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Red Sox43c619$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.361,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa5c…be69backed Orioles50c521.23$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.9414047.9%67 W · 73 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Red Sox60c500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30088549.7%440 W · 445 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a33…2534backed Orioles45c500$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2758156.8%46 W · 35 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0229…ea6cbacked Orioles50c464.27$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.1341747.2%197 W · 220 L+15.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbec2…10dabacked Red Sox56c445$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.21450%7 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x224b…f6b8backed Orioles53c435.44$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.9320954.5%114 W · 95 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb58d…818ebacked Orioles49c435$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.74146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Orioles44c411.83$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.625,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1752…7993backed Orioles48c403.86$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.913262.9%83 W · 49 L+12.0wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+93.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x363d…fe75backed Red Sox50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20021242.5%90 W · 122 L-13.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Red Sox55c363.89$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20080955.5%449 W · 360 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf64a…27c9backed Orioles54c328.72$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.055545.5%25 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca38…460bbacked Orioles55c305.97$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.8334051.2%174 W · 166 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0ee…cea7backed Red Sox59c300.48$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.551758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9320…95ddbacked Red Sox53c300$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15913555.6%75 W · 60 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58d2…46e6backed Red Sox52c285$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.4530928.5%88 W · 221 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14e3…ce1fbacked Orioles44c248.02$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.895349.1%26 W · 27 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+7.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9304…f693backed Red Sox52c238$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.368530.6%26 W · 59 L-7.7wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Orioles45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.2295930%288 W · 671 L-24.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x19b8…9c8ebacked Orioles47c211.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.939436%142 W · 252 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd386…1887backed Orioles48c209.23$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.2319233.3%64 W · 128 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe1d…c011backed Red Sox50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013848.6%67 W · 71 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0328…28fabacked Red Sox56c183.21$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.154742.6%20 W · 27 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Red Sox55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Red Sox55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b6d…5f97backed Red Sox55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008146.9%38 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa717…8919backed Red Sox55c178.69$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.4640548.9%198 W · 207 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Orioles48c169.84$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.971,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfde0…c21cbacked Red Sox67c155.09$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.916238.7%24 W · 38 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Red Sox42c146.6$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.363942.7%273 W · 366 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ce9…7a2cbacked Orioles49c130.35$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.8520645.1%93 W · 113 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2ff…906cbacked Orioles51c125.58$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.431540%6 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc94b…fd9bbacked Red Sox55c109.13$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9823444.9%105 W · 129 L-7.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91d7…2f8abacked Red Sox56c105.66$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.864856.3%27 W · 21 L-0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f95…9bd4backed Orioles48c105$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.151866.7%12 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1208…0160backed Red Sox20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2032832.3%106 W · 222 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-25.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9981…dec4backed Red Sox54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541163.6%7 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Red Sox54c93.3$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3811446.5%53 W · 61 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0624…017dbacked Red Sox55c90.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5026651.1%136 W · 130 L-16.0wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-11.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0af8…9454backed Red Sox55c80.67$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443961.5%24 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x68d6…8b0ebacked Orioles48c80$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.42835.7%10 W · 18 L-5.1wins-0.18per pick54cpaid-37.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x498c…9b68backed Red Sox53c75$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.753540%14 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8290…7fa3backed Red Sox58c73.69$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.761668.8%11 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fba…bdbdbacked Orioles53c72.98$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.37548%36 W · 39 L-9.2wins-0.12per pick60cpaid-24.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1e7f…7d7fbacked Red Sox55c72.73$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4015256.6%86 W · 66 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ca2…55e4backed Red Sox56c71.82$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.57154.9%39 W · 32 L+8.6wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+19.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa346…738fbacked Red Sox66c71.39$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.122356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+28.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb05…4d1dbacked Red Sox58c70$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.71855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-8.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe02e…88d5backed Red Sox54c64.87$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.03633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-42.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Orioles49c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.396,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51e5…e26cbacked Orioles49c59.02$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.021764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+19%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3ee…373ebacked Red Sox60c55.96$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3325452.8%134 W · 120 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe10e…cfddbacked Red Sox48c54.27$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.29824.5%24 W · 74 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77d6…4fd2backed Orioles52c53.33$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.611058.2%64 W · 46 L-0.4wins0.00per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6752…fafbbacked Red Sox55c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.53836.8%14 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43fd…021fbacked Orioles52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f19…72d9backed Orioles48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2641649%204 W · 212 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f19…aec2backed Orioles49c49.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.516947.3%80 W · 89 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Orioles47c47.06$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.0385047.4%403 W · 447 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa337…9e54backed Red Sox55c45.45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2594455.3%522 W · 422 L-2.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ab…d681backed Red Sox56c44.64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2574356.9%423 W · 320 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd428…92d8backed Orioles52c43.92$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.081668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+20.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1984…241ebacked Red Sox57c43.86$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.41per pick57cpaid-74%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x206e…425bbacked Orioles50c43.24$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.62540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ce6…e1b0backed Red Sox55c38.73$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.494146.3%19 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+24%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9599…be88backed Red Sox54c37.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2025511.8%30 W · 225 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-48.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.