Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 December 15-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58db313fc4c47537dfe6bf3fa970443e3c411f0d61682688b5f7ec392a35bf6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $193,117
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $171,337
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $193,117 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked Yes | 31c | 15,000$4,684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,683.5 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7152…faacbacked Yes | 0c | 10,600$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 94 | 0%0 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…3148backed Yes | 2c | 7,534$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c5…898bbacked Yes | 2c | 5,220$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0995…620dbacked Yes | 12c | 5,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 11c | 4,869$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.3 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfede…70c1backed Yes | 15c | 3,998$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.72 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,915$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d29…19aebacked No | 76c | 2,630$1,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.28 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed No | 79c | 2,144$1,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.28 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 1,700$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a06…201bbacked Yes | 20c | 1,550$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 6c | 1,415$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.43 | 146 | 3.4%5 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb646…0cf9backed Yes | 42c | 1,074$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.09 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62f5…eaaebacked Yes | 40c | 1,071$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9084…d70fbacked Yes | 9c | 962.86$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.56 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 29c | 937.87$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.42 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked Yes | 2c | 886.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -48%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 30c | 864.11$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.93 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 824.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 803$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 26c | 802.24$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.03 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a46…be88backed Yes | 27c | 745.67$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 69c | 689$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.59 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 5c | 615.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 78 | 1.3%1 W · 77 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 6c | 603.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 120 | 3.3%4 W · 116 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa29b…a0b8backed Yes | 49c | 510.51$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.15 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…95adbacked Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc91…b906backed No | 75c | 397.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 14c | 392.53$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.54 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72c4…ee6cbacked Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f0…6718backed No | 76c | 300$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc42d…10fbbacked Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3301…4dd8backed Yes | 5c | 253$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked No | 77c | 228.49$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.53 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 10c | 211$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaae2…dbdabacked Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…3c7fbacked No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 19c | 198.39$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ce…0218backed No | 72c | 154.95$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.95 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb424…e203backed No | 75c | 134.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 100.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf4…cc11backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc93…45aebacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae05…f5d1backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f26…70e1backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x749c…65b8backed No | 73c | 99.52$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d5…6aa6backed No | 79c | 90.38$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…6555backed Yes | 23c | 76.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ba…b18bbacked Yes | 30c | 66.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x792f…a740backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb824…bbcfbacked Yes | 27c | 66.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…8de4backed Yes | 31c | 65.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…44f5backed No | 75c | 54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13a…a600backed Yes | 37c | 53.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…5793backed Yes | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c5…0951backed No | 61c | 32.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a89…be7dbacked No | 64c | 27.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +157.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06b6…1332backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d77…9fcbbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd050…be7abacked No | 77c | 20.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 57cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb3…c770backed No | 80c | 12.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.51 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 December 15-21?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 December 15-21?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 December 15-21?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 15-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.