TailMyPicks
Market

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 15-21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$404,130
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$354,417

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $404,130 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc086…b1afbacked Yes16c20,000$3,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,102520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-37.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8909…11a2backed Yes13c15,366$2,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,009.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb63a…4064backed Yes11c14,534$1,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,621.9817231.4%54 W · 118 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c03…604ebacked Yes6c13,142$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780.617229.7%51 W · 121 L-13.0wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-47.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1ea7…bcd9backed Yes15c8,190$1,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,219.141233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-31.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfede…70c1backed Yes17c7,953$1,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,365.321118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-35.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x465e…40c9backed Yes7c7,662$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed Yes20c6,851$1,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,341.6922550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x48ff…9f1cbacked Yes9c5,596$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.670%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes22c5,499$1,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,195.6787828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0995…620dbacked Yes13c5,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6501717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-35.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes19c4,259$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$817.9258126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c3,711$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.341,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x615e…5295backed Yes1c3,237$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.72270.9%2 W · 225 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6408…c7aebacked Yes23c3,100$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7115024%12 W · 38 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce8f…4400backed No35c3,000$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9504839.6%19 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6294…33f3backed No37c2,888$1,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,826.166657.6%38 W · 28 L+6.9wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf0d9…94c6backed Yes12c2,616$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.627020%14 W · 56 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3301…4dd8backed Yes9c2,524$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.891024.9%5 W · 97 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-76.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes3c2,491$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.2423411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9888…9804backed Yes3c2,210$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6550%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6919…d27bbacked Yes21c2,200$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.23724.3%9 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+31.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x70a4…eff2backed Yes14c2,124$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.148713.8%12 W · 75 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes7c1,911$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.096785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes5c1,847$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.922999.4%28 W · 271 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes6c1,750$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001379.5%13 W · 124 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+25.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa229…0b73backed Yes11c1,590$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-76.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1258…0c15backed Yes7c1,429$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-33.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes8c1,394$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.61463.4%5 W · 141 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-57.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes3c1,304$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.163835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9197…08d4backed Yes21c1,300$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2692445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b7b…09d8backed Yes23c1,285$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes7c1,129$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.44781.3%1 W · 77 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick6cpaid-86.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x09c5…0e04backed No80c1,125$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes7c1,109$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.641203.3%4 W · 116 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-61.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef9…afacbacked Yes17c1,100$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1908619.8%17 W · 69 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes8c1,070$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.092125.7%12 W · 200 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed No77c1,056$813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.887767.5%52 W · 25 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x37a9…73e8backed No67c999.99$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3301266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffed…e122backed Yes4c959.48$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c8a…b16abacked Yes3c954.44$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbe7…40ddbacked Yes8c954.33$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a46…be88backed Yes21c952.38$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf632…02aabacked Yes11c844.99$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.17321.9%16 W · 57 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+51.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes16c841.89$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.97240%0 W · 24 L-4.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1556…81a1backed Yes2c784.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d90…f272backed Yes11c780$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.860%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a2b…b404backed Yes8c751.67$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60427.1%3 W · 39 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-58.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed No64c662.5$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.7240643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa38…45debacked Yes8c588.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ff5…50eabacked No51c565.38$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.381921.1%4 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-29%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507a…be1fbacked Yes4c564.33$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.321533.3%5 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-48%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe997…131fbacked Yes9c550$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d0e…96ddbacked Yes8c527.21$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.17432.3%1 W · 42 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-92.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b53…0d24backed Yes10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d3…52b9backed Yes17c500$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes19c500$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9512012.5%15 W · 105 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-55.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x60cc…96f8backed No73c500$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1361100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes16c499.22$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.5564812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x62f5…eaaebacked Yes21c467.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-35.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x72c4…ee6cbacked Yes5c420$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212722.2%6 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9250…2251backed Yes6c390.41$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeadd…0215backed Yes6c312.67$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.31822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-47%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f36…89cabacked Yes15c300$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.25425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd859…38c5backed Yes18c300$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541437.7%11 W · 132 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5029…bdb4backed No44c284.09$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.09540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadaf…aefdbacked Yes31c279.8$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.74728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe18b…f37bbacked Yes19c275.95$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fbb…1e8abacked No48c260.42$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.421216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-62.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa9…cac0backed Yes22c241$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.021442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe585…91b5backed No65c239.99$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$842857.1%16 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9084…d70fbacked Yes20c237.17$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.05160%0 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xebf0…e275backed No61c223.67$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.23366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d25…6e45backed Yes13c210$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7532…c6fcbacked No76c200$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.511265.2%73 W · 39 L+8.3wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9196…c311backed No40c200$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12012736.2%46 W · 81 L+9.1wins+0.07per pick29cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda79…9875backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf371…9812backed Yes36c200$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712832.1%9 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-27.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb01…76a5backed Yes13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf1f…3537backed Yes19c200$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382857.1%16 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7461…251fbacked No71c176.06$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.06250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacb3…bef5backed Yes12c169.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb157…0120backed Yes63c158.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf10…799ebacked Yes7c157.14$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked No66c153.5$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.1955032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf13a…a600backed Yes21c148.43$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.12119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15c4…75cebacked No67c148.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.31728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-41.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30a5…ab5abacked Yes10c120$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x697a…b9f9backed Yes16c103.89$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0840%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x65e7…89ffbacked Yes20c100.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20598.5%5 W · 54 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-63.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1928021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa073…9616backed No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedad…17b2backed No63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376250%31 W · 31 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d1f…6f8dbacked Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3060%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae05…f5d1backed Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334126.8%11 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc83f…d705backed No41c97.56$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.56540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes42c97.36$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4134848.6%169 W · 179 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5bf…6b9dbacked Yes16c93.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3880…ab7dbacked Yes28c93.5$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.18825%2 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-54.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf11d…e509backed Yes15c93.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.