TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 December 15-21?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$122,322
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$112,797

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,322 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes2c16,242$300 inLost-$300.3823411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes8c14,017$1,129 inLost-$1,129.258126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4124…8af2backed Yes6c7,172$430 inLost-$430.272152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c5,296$25 inLost-$24.731,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bc9…7361backed Yes2c4,672$100 inLost-$100832.4%2 W · 81 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-74.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes0c3,563$15 inLost-$15.32137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-89.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes2c2,161$51 inLost-$51.352999.4%28 W · 271 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb63a…4064backed Yes2c2,027$49 inLost-$49.4917231.4%54 W · 118 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507a…be1fbacked Yes1c1,908$12 inLost-$12.321533.3%5 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-48%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c1,366$35 inLost-$34.896785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3301…4dd8backed Yes4c1,161$45 inLost-$44.91024.9%5 W · 97 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-76.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaae2…dbdabacked Yes5c1,000$50 inLost-$501942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick33cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes1c980$12 inLost-$12.051463.4%5 W · 141 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-57.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes4c843.4$30 inLost-$29.742125.7%12 W · 200 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05bf…5839backed Yes2c767$12 inLost-$12.2420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x615e…5295backed Yes2c733.72$14 inLost-$13.672270.9%2 W · 225 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes6c662.32$38 inLost-$37.887828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes2c600$13 inLost-$13.1781.3%1 W · 77 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick6cpaid-86.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77f5…eef6backed Yes6c475.93$28 inLost-$28.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed Yes5c335.04$17 inLost-$16.7522550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c68…f135backed Yes7c274.08$20 inLost-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c4e…c1fcbacked Yes5c260$13 inLost-$13.261811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-56.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x749c…65b8backed Yes5c240.25$12 inLost-$12.011526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x65e7…89ffbacked Yes10c200$20 inLost-$20598.5%5 W · 54 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-63.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf346…8232backed Yes11c100$11 inLost-$112615.4%4 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-46.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.