Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 December 15-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7c3d3fd0d167b0b7763990a7d6c79cc7712dfa941528089b5306da55c291bea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,932
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,858
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,932 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f26…d136backed Yes | 69c | 6,048$4,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,865.29 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff3…b0febacked Yes | 38c | 4,998$1,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,098.85 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce8f…4400backed Yes | 42c | 3,000$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,739.95 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 44c | 2,521$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400.41 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 50c | 2,331$1,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,164.73 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked No | 32c | 2,073$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.96 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bf…95d3backed No | 52c | 1,920$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.4 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6294…33f3backed No | 15c | 1,555$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.25 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6408…c7aebacked Yes | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa09c…f710backed No | 46c | 998.93$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.51 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 60c | 564.24$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.31 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc1…fdc6backed Yes | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked No | 45c | 388.5$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.66 | 172 | 29.7%51 W · 121 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 42c | 387$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.73 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x62f5…eaaebacked No | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked No | 57c | 290.64$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.26 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe585…91b5backed No | 55c | 280$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9112…7797backed Yes | 64c | 200$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked No | 41c | 179.89$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.08 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eeb…c3d7backed Yes | 55c | 170$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa9…cac0backed No | 59c | 170$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.3 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked No | 53c | 162.02$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.83 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa324…c18abacked No | 45c | 160$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef39…423bbacked No | 45c | 140$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd43…0699backed Yes | 55c | 130$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 54c | 119.83$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.71 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c974backed Yes | 47c | 105$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66d9…7cbcbacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758a…f23cbacked Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5d…47d0backed No | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…8ca1backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb7…93c7backed No | 44c | 45.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…c311backed No | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24a6…0e2dbacked No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…7c9abacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 34c | 36.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x497a…89fdbacked Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 38c | 30.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb824…bbcfbacked Yes | 40c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x651a…9f8fbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x386e…3463backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 December 15-21?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 December 15-21?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 15-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.