Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 December 15-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa78953d65e9b7a9ce51e06ae6b1bb683aa1676d4442191acf8b96b2a782f5e72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $207,223
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $183,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $207,223 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x48ff…9f1cbacked Yes | 3c | 32,591$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.32 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 15c | 25,434$3,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,862.13 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 4c | 17,978$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.74 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 8,596$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3301…4dd8backed Yes | 4c | 3,327$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.36 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…94c6backed Yes | 4c | 2,996$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.75 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 9c | 2,800$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 2,612$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.92 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 12c | 2,456$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.35 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 11c | 2,389$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.6 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 5c | 2,086$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x615e…5295backed Yes | 1c | 2,030$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 227 | 0.9%2 W · 225 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 11c | 1,974$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.51 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0e…96ddbacked Yes | 2c | 1,840$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -92.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 1,208$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.07 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 5c | 1,102$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.11 | 146 | 3.4%5 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05bf…5839backed Yes | 3c | 1,037$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x140e…3185backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 918.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 7c | 869.09$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.12 | 143 | 7.7%11 W · 132 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes | 2c | 817.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +177.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…6c58backed Yes | 12c | 806.82$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a53…3309backed Yes | 2c | 789.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked No | 71c | 750$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.5 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fef…5946backed Yes | 17c | 564.71$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked No | 78c | 520$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.4 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 5c | 505.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 78 | 1.3%1 W · 77 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec9…e7abbacked Yes | 2c | 502.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 6c | 500$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 120 | 12.5%15 W · 105 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65e7…89ffbacked Yes | 11c | 499.86$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.77 | 59 | 8.5%5 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 120 | 3.3%4 W · 116 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 8c | 244$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x749c…65b8backed Yes | 16c | 202.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 8c | 160.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed No | 68c | 145.59$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.59 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497a…89fdbacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf632…02aabacked Yes | 9c | 120$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…7c9abacked Yes | 11c | 114$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9276…be64backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 December 15-21?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 December 15-21?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 December 15-21?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 15-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.