Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 December 15-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b765e8eb894eb369ec4843a614765443cd95034de0fb16628aa0522ea5881b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $526,677
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $531,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $526,677 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked Yes | 65c | 24,098$15,772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,771.68 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 59c | 23,499$13,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,833.12 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02c1…2e70backed No | 42c | 14,824$6,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,571.75 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed No | 40c | 12,433$4,973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,460 | 120 | 25%30 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x465e…40c9backed Yes | 5c | 10,244$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed No | 45c | 10,011$4,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,484.64 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff3…b0febacked No | 27c | 10,000$2,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,266.69 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…750bbacked Yes | 5c | 9,156$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.25 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7152…faacbacked Yes | 0c | 8,728$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 94 | 0%0 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…8af2backed No | 34c | 8,413$2,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,569.07 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 6,648$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…d136backed No | 64c | 6,347$4,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,294.09 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed Yes | 40c | 4,894$1,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,954.93 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 53c | 4,592$2,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,451.26 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 51c | 4,262$2,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,171.46 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 40c | 4,059$1,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,452.01 | 94 | 27.7%26 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa042…62bdbacked No | 51c | 3,700$1,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,797 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7702…13d1backed No | 58c | 3,470$2,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,457.4 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea7…bcd9backed Yes | 66c | 3,400$2,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,244 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf371…9812backed Yes | 19c | 2,920$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.75 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 2c | 2,384$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed No | 30c | 2,011$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,408.04 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62f5…eaaebacked Yes | 56c | 1,981$1,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102.76 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc632…55bebacked Yes | 5c | 1,940$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.27 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf274…37f4backed Yes | 2c | 1,695$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb424…e203backed No | 79c | 1,393$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.77 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff5…50eabacked Yes | 20c | 1,367$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -29%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 31c | 1,276$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,261$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2055…4542backed Yes | 6c | 1,200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 1,191$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.61 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 5c | 1,168$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.06 | 146 | 3.4%5 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 10c | 1,158$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.51 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…9804backed Yes | 3c | 1,147$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb67f…a766backed Yes | 6c | 1,126$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 4cpaid | +1,652.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…d350backed Yes | 27c | 1,067$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…99b7backed Yes | 5c | 1,021$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 1,013$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d3…52b9backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed Yes | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbb…1e8abacked Yes | 22c | 989.59$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.83 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed No | 80c | 924.92$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.65 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked No | 68c | 825$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9084…d70fbacked Yes | 17c | 769.95$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.18 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 55c | 724$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.32 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…c311backed No | 33c | 707.44$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.89 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 5c | 699.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 120 | 3.3%4 W · 116 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53b0…4daabacked Yes | 18c | 664.75$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 6c | 629.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 78 | 1.3%1 W · 77 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked No | 56c | 603.52$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.34 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6575…4c6dbacked Yes | 5c | 565.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…593dbacked No | 75c | 515$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 52c | 501.99$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.19 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedad…17b2backed Yes | 57c | 500$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51c5…9ce1backed Yes | 19c | 492.84$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1555…7d82backed Yes | 43c | 448.43$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes | 28c | 441.73$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 32c | 414.01$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.7 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8584…f7bbbacked Yes | 4c | 410.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c01…67f8backed Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60f1…cb3ebacked Yes | 63c | 400$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 122 | 59.8%73 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe022…4076backed Yes | 10c | 387.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc749…e803backed No | 27c | 368.44$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.96 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd02c…769fbacked Yes | 29c | 347.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d43…bbedbacked Yes | 5c | 332.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 11c | 325.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa289…b412backed Yes | 41c | 313.22$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.42 | 65 | 75.4%49 W · 16 L | +9.0wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 35c | 310$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 49c | 300.08$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.74 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 57cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb165…c97ebacked No | 27c | 300$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2683…b5bfbacked No | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5302…208abacked No | 34c | 300$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81b8…bce8backed Yes | 50c | 286$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7461…251fbacked Yes | 44c | 284.09$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…e99fbacked No | 24c | 265$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.63 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb75e…2670backed Yes | 49c | 255.1$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 16c | 250.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x697a…b9f9backed Yes | 18c | 244.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb646…0cf9backed Yes | 42c | 240$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5029…bdb4backed Yes | 53c | 235.85$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea66…258bbacked No | 55c | 233$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.35 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7354…430fbacked No | 62c | 220$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5e…2efebacked Yes | 19c | 212.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +91.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72c4…ee6cbacked Yes | 27c | 200$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1286…e43fbacked Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…f471backed Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9197…08d4backed No | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f26…70e1backed Yes | 26c | 200$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6f…5249backed Yes | 50c | 186.36$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3301…4dd8backed Yes | 15c | 167.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55d…7484backed Yes | 44c | 160$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc91…b906backed No | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ad…5f52backed Yes | 52c | 142.31$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc22a…f277backed Yes | 42c | 133.55$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17cb…d67cbacked Yes | 36c | 130$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…026dbacked No | 64c | 130$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…2429backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88f2…4852backed Yes | 33c | 119.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13a…a600backed Yes | 57c | 111.62$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.02 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50ce…0218backed No | 39c | 111.45$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.45 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 December 15-21?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 December 15-21?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 December 15-21?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 15-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.