TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 December 15-21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$526,677
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$531,073

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $526,677 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes65c24,098$15,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,771.6819535.4%69 W · 126 L-13.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes59c23,499$13,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,833.1237745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x02c1…2e70backed No42c14,824$6,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,571.752540%10 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed No40c12,433$4,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,46012025%30 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x465e…40c9backed Yes5c10,244$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed No45c10,011$4,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,484.6458126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ff3…b0febacked No27c10,000$2,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,266.697123.9%17 W · 54 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56db…750bbacked Yes5c9,156$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.25220%0 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7152…faacbacked Yes0c8,728$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.81940%0 W · 94 L-0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4124…8af2backed No34c8,413$2,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,569.072152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c6,648$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f26…d136backed No64c6,347$4,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,294.091968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb63a…4064backed Yes40c4,894$1,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,954.9317231.4%54 W · 118 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes53c4,592$2,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,451.2687828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed Yes51c4,262$2,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,171.4622550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked No40c4,059$1,607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,452.019427.7%26 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa042…62bdbacked No51c3,700$1,903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7974100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+58.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7702…13d1backed No58c3,470$2,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,457.41464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ea7…bcd9backed Yes66c3,400$2,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2441233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-31.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf371…9812backed Yes19c2,920$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.752832.1%9 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-27.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes2c2,384$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.751428.6%4 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick14cpaid+61.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed No30c2,011$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,408.041428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-23.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62f5…eaaebacked Yes56c1,981$1,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,102.762330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-35.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc632…55bebacked Yes5c1,940$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.273611.1%4 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick7cpaid-39.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf274…37f4backed Yes2c1,695$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335612.5%7 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+48.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb424…e203backed No79c1,393$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.771478.6%11 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick73cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff5…50eabacked Yes20c1,367$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2781921.1%4 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-29%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes31c1,276$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39734848.6%169 W · 179 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes3c1,261$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.392999.4%28 W · 271 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2055…4542backed Yes6c1,200$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-59.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes5c1,191$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.616785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes5c1,168$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.061463.4%5 W · 141 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-57.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes10c1,158$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.51240%0 W · 24 L-4.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9888…9804backed Yes3c1,147$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3350%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb67f…a766backed Yes6c1,126$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.45250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick4cpaid+1,652.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6f5…d350backed Yes27c1,067$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-56.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e06…99b7backed Yes5c1,021$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes5c1,013$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.262125.7%12 W · 200 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d3…52b9backed Yes17c1,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed Yes22c1,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-48%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fbb…1e8abacked Yes22c989.59$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.831216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-62.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed No80c924.92$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.657767.5%52 W · 25 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7532…c6fcbacked No68c825$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26411265.2%73 W · 39 L+8.3wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9084…d70fbacked Yes17c769.95$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.18160%0 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed No55c724$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.3240643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9196…c311backed No33c707.44$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.8912736.2%46 W · 81 L+9.1wins+0.07per pick29cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes5c699.98$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.41203.3%4 W · 116 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-61.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53b0…4daabacked Yes18c664.75$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.89425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-65.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes6c629.56$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.22781.3%1 W · 77 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick6cpaid-86.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked No56c603.52$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.3426274.4%195 W · 67 L+45.7wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+31.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x6575…4c6dbacked Yes5c565.19$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a97…593dbacked No75c515$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.6666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick76cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes52c501.99$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.1955032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedad…17b2backed Yes57c500$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2836250%31 W · 31 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51c5…9ce1backed Yes19c492.84$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1555…7d82backed Yes43c448.43$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.7837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-26.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes28c441.73$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1227746.8%36 W · 41 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes32c414.01$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.731523.8%75 W · 240 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8584…f7bbbacked Yes4c410.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c01…67f8backed Yes50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60f1…cb3ebacked Yes63c400$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25012259.8%73 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe022…4076backed Yes10c387.45$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc749…e803backed No27c368.44$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.961921.1%4 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid-44.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd02c…769fbacked Yes29c347.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100120%0 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d43…bbedbacked Yes5c332.22$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes11c325.78$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4963835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa289…b412backed Yes41c313.22$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.426575.4%49 W · 16 L+9.0wins+0.14per pick62cpaid+19.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes35c310$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.523411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2880…fa70backed No49c300.08$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.741978.9%15 W · 4 L+4.2wins+0.22per pick57cpaid+35.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb165…c97ebacked No27c300$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2191866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2683…b5bfbacked No50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1506041.7%25 W · 35 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-27.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5302…208abacked No34c300$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1982250%11 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x81b8…bce8backed Yes50c286$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7461…251fbacked Yes44c284.09$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e8b…e99fbacked No24c265$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.637642.1%32 W · 44 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb75e…2670backed Yes49c255.1$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3486…49eebacked Yes16c250.31$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402516%4 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-38%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x697a…b9f9backed Yes18c244.51$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.140%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb646…0cf9backed Yes42c240$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.81833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5029…bdb4backed Yes53c235.85$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea66…258bbacked No55c233$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.351580%12 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+31.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7354…430fbacked No62c220$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b5e…2efebacked Yes19c212.47$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.37633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+91.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x72c4…ee6cbacked Yes27c200$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532722.2%6 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1286…e43fbacked Yes17c200$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ae…f471backed Yes54c200$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1081369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9197…08d4backed No52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f26…70e1backed Yes26c200$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5170%0 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e6f…5249backed Yes50c186.36$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3301…4dd8backed Yes15c167.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.681024.9%5 W · 97 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-76.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd55d…7484backed Yes44c160$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.43339.4%13 W · 20 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcc91…b906backed No64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.25560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8ad…5f52backed Yes52c142.31$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc22a…f277backed Yes42c133.55$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17cb…d67cbacked Yes36c130$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.83151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72a1…026dbacked No64c130$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.82653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbad…2429backed Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88f2…4852backed Yes33c119.77$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf13a…a600backed Yes57c111.62$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.02119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50ce…0218backed No39c111.45$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.453100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+73.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.