Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 December 15-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x813f69782c7547d217322dbe06e652c0eca11b65421f4150390c3d37a765a21f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $121,643
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,653
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,643 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked Yes | 10c | 10,125$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.6 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 5c | 8,450$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.15 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7152…faacbacked Yes | 0c | 8,100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 94 | 0%0 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfede…70c1backed Yes | 13c | 7,000$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f0…b824backed Yes | 3c | 6,408$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc89b…f512backed Yes | 13c | 3,801$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -73%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 6c | 3,523$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.25 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,506$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 2,326$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.66 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…5c61backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,642$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.46 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes | 6c | 1,601$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +111.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb4…9776backed Yes | 11c | 1,343$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -70%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 6c | 1,250$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.72 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 1,160$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.06 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 9c | 1,132$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.65 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 3c | 966.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 146 | 3.4%5 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2b…b404backed Yes | 6c | 669.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 42 | 7.1%3 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 12c | 600$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58a…ceb3backed Yes | 10c | 573.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaae2…dbdabacked Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 120 | 3.3%4 W · 116 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 3c | 494.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 78 | 1.3%1 W · 77 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 4c | 481.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 4c | 342.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42d…10fbbacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e03…a361backed Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x792f…a740backed Yes | 6c | 233.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc52…c07abacked Yes | 13c | 217.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 December 15-21?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 December 15-21?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 December 15-21?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 December 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 15-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.