Fed Rates · resolved market
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b8547d064f8b849259c7f4e923775916b831b114066279a4f9e41bafd9d1fc4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,565,265
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,339,866
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,565,265 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9cb…0dd3backed Yes | 2c | 285,019$4,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,883.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…795cbacked Yes | 1c | 125,000$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,245 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbb…7cdbbacked Yes | 1c | 118,295$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.76 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49bd…da22backed Yes | 1c | 64,210$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.43 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71a8…3b90backed Yes | 2c | 58,804$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed Yes | 1c | 54,843$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 1c | 53,789$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.05 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 1c | 46,208$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.43 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4899…301bbacked Yes | 1c | 44,547$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf480…7b8cbacked Yes | 2c | 42,378$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x611c…c982backed Yes | 2c | 36,729$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.4 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 35,074$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.71 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa28e…63bbbacked Yes | 1c | 33,378$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd20…6f35backed Yes | 1c | 33,351$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 31,432$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.66 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20f9…4cdbbacked Yes | 1c | 26,848$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…50c7backed Yes | 1c | 22,223$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.53 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e1…1728backed Yes | 1c | 20,670$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9abbbacked Yes | 1c | 20,318$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…c36fbacked Yes | 2c | 20,075$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.92 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e33…cf1cbacked Yes | 2c | 19,776$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.38 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf645…0d16backed Yes | 1c | 19,582$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba32…deaabacked Yes | 2c | 18,806$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e46…7e28backed Yes | 0c | 18,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…f64fbacked Yes | 0c | 14,300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf309…8d2abacked Yes | 0c | 14,200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41c1…f3eebacked Yes | 1c | 13,577$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3d…83f8backed Yes | 2c | 13,333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x533c…947dbacked Yes | 0c | 13,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8e…962bbacked Yes | 2c | 12,882$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.21 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…4628backed Yes | 2c | 12,658$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 12,639$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.82 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -94.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceaf…2b52backed Yes | 0c | 12,220$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dde…aeb1backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf32a…7426backed Yes | 1c | 11,218$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b7…12cebacked Yes | 0c | 11,200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3aaa…b9d5backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b11…d6aebacked Yes | 1c | 10,891$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked Yes | 1c | 10,592$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.45 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -89.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3899…ef84backed Yes | 0c | 10,400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5905…7464backed Yes | 0c | 10,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0e…4111backed Yes | 0c | 10,200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…46a7backed Yes | 1c | 10,150$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.95 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8824…5c8bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e06…4065backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad1…35d0backed Yes | 1c | 9,992$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…7fb5backed Yes | 2c | 9,819$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.83 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a47…846fbacked Yes | 2c | 9,752$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9c…fe73backed Yes | 2c | 9,694$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…8b8abacked Yes | 2c | 8,543$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.29 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 1c | 8,516$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.84 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55a9…2c79backed Yes | 2c | 8,215$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2531…d9f1backed Yes | 1c | 7,875$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4073…f770backed Yes | 1c | 7,500$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4746…9a30backed Yes | 1c | 7,333$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ab…929bbacked Yes | 2c | 7,164$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf54…e5bebacked Yes | 1c | 7,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 1c | 6,957$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.15 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 1c | 6,328$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7fb…7d8cbacked Yes | 1c | 6,154$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 0c | 6,020$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca87…e77dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,919$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 2c | 5,912$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.75 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9071…af9cbacked Yes | 1c | 5,595$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2f…21babacked Yes | 2c | 5,231$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 0c | 5,146$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf627…8895backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2a…5d4abacked Yes | 2c | 4,307$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb25…da91backed Yes | 1c | 4,291$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70d1…21d8backed Yes | 1c | 4,167$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf9…69a2backed Yes | 1c | 4,167$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fea…d383backed Yes | 1c | 4,100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf29…ed7dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,846$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…8beabacked Yes | 1c | 3,830$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x410c…b808backed Yes | 1c | 3,767$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe20…2042backed Yes | 1c | 3,571$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b63…a516backed Yes | 2c | 3,279$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…5470backed Yes | 2c | 3,233$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08df…aea8backed Yes | 1c | 3,202$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 2c | 3,137$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ac…c2aabacked Yes | 1c | 3,075$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…c693backed Yes | 1c | 3,015$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x978f…b906backed Yes | 1c | 2,885$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcac5…57d5backed Yes | 1c | 2,859$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 2,744$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f31…cb74backed Yes | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1b…0f84backed Yes | 1c | 2,422$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9a…4d40backed Yes | 1c | 2,397$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2a…879abacked Yes | 1c | 2,377$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdce7…f553backed Yes | 1c | 2,349$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9640…283ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4489…2452backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ea…33d6backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0890…bec4backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe320…4d16backed Yes | 2c | 1,909$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…3bd8backed Yes | 1c | 1,892$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f5…1d41backed Yes | 3c | 1,883$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.13 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd2…3f53backed Yes | 1c | 1,826$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d6…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,763$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab6a…e67ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,728$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.