World Politics · resolved market
Will King Charles say "Ukraine" during the joint meeting of Congress?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd44f161e3d609e459ebc8fa50efcf79896a83e976cf852fdc8a56a0642ba33a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,555
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,555 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes | 42c | 2,029$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,182.84 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked No | 54c | 1,713$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924.04 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceab…dce7backed No | 41c | 1,203$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.9 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 56c | 979.99$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.99 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 51c | 751.82$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.46 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -8.5wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…0be9backed No | 44c | 682.73$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 52c | 375.34$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.96 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 48c | 350.91$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.18 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…e21dbacked Yes | 65c | 310$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.86 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 79c | 304.17$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xafd2…9693backed No | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…1b19backed No | 24c | 212$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 66c | 200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 69c | 148.25$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 29c | 145$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…1d39backed No | 19c | 133.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -73%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked No | 39c | 121.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.55 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…a268backed Yes | 32c | 113.33$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.33 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe62…bfa5backed No | 72c | 110$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.05 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -5.0wins | -0.50per pick | 60cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…324ebacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 77c | 99.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 53c | 87.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 34c | 83.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…c1d0backed Yes | 61c | 78.78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…b38cbacked No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3862…d0acbacked No | 43c | 47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…eb3bbacked Yes | 45c | 44.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7169…3ca6backed No | 37c | 43.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…3716backed Yes | 71c | 20.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Yes | 79c | 19.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…4b61backed Yes | 77c | 17.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e5…52bebacked Yes | 79c | 13.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.82 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…7a5abacked Yes | 77c | 13.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will King Charles say "Ukraine" during the joint meeting of Congress?this page
- Will King Charles say "250" or "250th" during the joint meeting of Congress?Yes won
- Will King Charles say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the joint meeting of Congress?Yes won
- Will King Charles say "American" or "America" 15+ times during the joint meeting of Congress?Yes won
- Will King Charles say "Anniversary" during the joint meeting of Congress?Yes won
- Will King Charles say "Ballroom" during the joint meeting of Congress?No won
- Will King Charles say "Colony" during the joint meeting of Congress?Yes won
- Will King Charles say "Crown" or "Prince" during the joint meeting of Congress?Yes won
- Will King Charles say "Freedom" 5+ times during the joint meeting of Congress?No won
- Will King Charles say "George" or "Washington" during the joint meeting of Congress?Yes won
- Will King Charles say "Historic" or "History" or "Historical" during the joint meeting of Congress?Yes won
- Will King Charles say "Honor" during the joint meeting of Congress?Yes won
- Will King Charles say "Independence" during the joint meeting of Congress?Yes won
- Will King Charles say "King" or "Kingdom" during the joint meeting of Congress?Yes won
- Will King Charles say "Mother" or "Mama" during the joint meeting of Congress?Yes won
- Will King Charles say "NATO" during the joint meeting of Congress?Yes won
- Will King Charles say "Parliament" during the joint meeting of Congress?Yes won
- Will King Charles say "Queen" or "Elizabeth" during the joint meeting of Congress?Yes won
- Will King Charles say "Special Relationship" during the joint meeting of Congress?No won
- Will King Charles say "War" during the joint meeting of Congress?Yes won
- Will King Charles's remarks not air?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.