World Politics · resolved market
Will King Charles say "Special Relationship" during the joint meeting of Congress?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x825293682fd9d869ac0ad53190ebb82943e86e7825ec564a66208398470a6445
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,948
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,948 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xceab…dce7backed Yes | 62c | 778.3$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.96 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc95…0b9cbacked No | 40c | 628.69$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +151.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked No | 63c | 418.29$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.49 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafd2…9693backed Yes | 36c | 398$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d9…3a2ebacked No | 38c | 287.13$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.43 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 44c | 274.09$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.07 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -8.5wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 39c | 271.15$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.15 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…17a6backed No | 68c | 230.84$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.84 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3314…a8c7backed No | 53c | 224.75$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecc…1d30backed No | 69c | 192$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.56 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 62c | 191.84$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.59 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe62…bfa5backed No | 37c | 105$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.48 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -5.0wins | -0.50per pick | 60cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 62c | 104.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.09 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 553 | 34.5%191 W · 362 L | -38.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6778…226abacked No | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 45c | 98.52$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked Yes | 62c | 94.41$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.77 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 37c | 94.26$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.13 | 1,344 | 44.3%595 W · 749 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 29c | 90$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.9 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebb…0614backed No | 33c | 85.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.45 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe65f…9352backed Yes | 66c | 79$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 35c | 78.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.72 | 324 | 34.9%113 W · 211 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 48c | 69.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 56c | 68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 994 | 17.2%171 W · 823 L | -149.6wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 62.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 459 | 29.2%134 W · 325 L | -69.3wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e625backed Yes | 47c | 55.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 63c | 54.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ca…960bbacked Yes | 77c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 38c | 44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x725b…27e8backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fb…b0e9backed Yes | 73c | 34.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…eb3bbacked Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e18…5c85backed Yes | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 70c | 18.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e5…52bebacked Yes | 67c | 15.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will King Charles say "Special Relationship" during the joint meeting of Congress?this page
- Will King Charles say "250" or "250th" during the joint meeting of Congress?Yes won
- Will King Charles say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the joint meeting of Congress?Yes won
- Will King Charles say "American" or "America" 15+ times during the joint meeting of Congress?Yes won
- Will King Charles say "Anniversary" during the joint meeting of Congress?Yes won
- Will King Charles say "Ballroom" during the joint meeting of Congress?No won
- Will King Charles say "Colony" during the joint meeting of Congress?Yes won
- Will King Charles say "Crown" or "Prince" during the joint meeting of Congress?Yes won
- Will King Charles say "Freedom" 5+ times during the joint meeting of Congress?No won
- Will King Charles say "George" or "Washington" during the joint meeting of Congress?Yes won
- Will King Charles say "Historic" or "History" or "Historical" during the joint meeting of Congress?Yes won
- Will King Charles say "Honor" during the joint meeting of Congress?Yes won
- Will King Charles say "Independence" during the joint meeting of Congress?Yes won
- Will King Charles say "King" or "Kingdom" during the joint meeting of Congress?Yes won
- Will King Charles say "Mother" or "Mama" during the joint meeting of Congress?Yes won
- Will King Charles say "NATO" during the joint meeting of Congress?Yes won
- Will King Charles say "Parliament" during the joint meeting of Congress?Yes won
- Will King Charles say "Queen" or "Elizabeth" during the joint meeting of Congress?Yes won
- Will King Charles say "Ukraine" during the joint meeting of Congress?Yes won
- Will King Charles say "War" during the joint meeting of Congress?Yes won
- Will King Charles's remarks not air?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.