Us Politics · resolved market
Trump approval Up or Down this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb330a075849ad8c58d743d083e8374181d81090b1ac8b24b4e776ef2623aef1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,305
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,305 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x993c…6787backed Down | 49c | 2,855$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400.05 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Down | 51c | 1,500$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.99 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Down | 39c | 1,015$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.99 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x297c…38c8backed Up | 49c | 1,011$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +106%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Up | 48c | 949.34$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.57 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20e3…d1bdbacked Down | 50c | 609.99$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Up | 53c | 500$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 46c | 407.97$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.06 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80c6…e3c1backed Up | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Up | 73c | 287.02$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.02 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Down | 53c | 250$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…0c6fbacked Down | 58c | 238$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Down | 49c | 200$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Up | 42c | 170.33$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.2 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Down | 48c | 165.04$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.99 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a43…2f2abacked Up | 49c | 140.82$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.82 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +173.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e5…f261backed Down | 51c | 140$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Down | 43c | 139.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.93 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b0…000dbacked Down | 57c | 109.75$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed Up | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed Up | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db2…3ce5backed Up | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed Down | 51c | 80.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…820abacked Up | 53c | 73.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Up | 42c | 65.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.17 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…b952backed Down | 47c | 62.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96e5…bb74backed Up | 43c | 46.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfae8…35d2backed Up | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Down | 53c | 40.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccfe…9e3bbacked Up | 51c | 39.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3e…8e7fbacked Down | 57c | 39.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e1…2a90backed Down | 53c | 38.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…d1d7backed Down | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c7…15cebacked Down | 54c | 35.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Up | 48c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…2db6backed Up | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…6405backed Up | 49c | 20.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.