Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $115K September 8–14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72286fba03716c653d9d520ec796e22505459d3bcce6b3a72d0f8b2db8673e59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $131,666
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $134,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,666 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c13…8834backed No | 0c | 33,005$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -46%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa279…0371backed Yes | 74c | 7,894$5,821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,073.22 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes | 66c | 7,529$4,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,537.61 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed No | 32c | 5,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 120 | 25%30 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…f652backed No | 23c | 5,000$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,159.9 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2adf…d89cbacked No | 27c | 3,684$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.48 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +16.5wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…0dd4backed No | 18c | 3,200$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 63c | 2,897$1,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060.19 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb3…92e2backed No | 28c | 2,563$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.64 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec8b…3c19backed Yes | 48c | 1,520$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed Yes | 60c | 1,500$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 138 | 63%87 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 80c | 1,500$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdebd…4671backed No | 51c | 1,470$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.95 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d3…06eebacked No | 28c | 1,100$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e8…a3fdbacked No | 27c | 800$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed No | 31c | 750.01$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.57 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked No | 19c | 424.96$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.16 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed No | 26c | 424.84$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.93 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…6cb0backed No | 52c | 393.65$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.7 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb71c…dd68backed No | 40c | 350$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa601…d54ebacked No | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed No | 31c | 250$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.1 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x401a…1000backed Yes | 60c | 249.31$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4290…e2c0backed No | 39c | 200$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 21c | 199$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d40…28e9backed No | 44c | 191.96$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 18c | 180$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x637d…2392backed No | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | +13.9wins | +0.20per pick | 29cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ed…2a85backed Yes | 70c | 141.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.87 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 61c | 133.04$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d3…bc19backed Yes | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce7b…7677backed No | 27c | 72.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e2…40b6backed No | 42c | 65.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97a7…49f7backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2962…2650backed No | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e90…ef7fbacked No | 58c | 41.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 35c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73fa…99cabacked Yes | 80c | 16.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $115K September 8–14?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100K September 8–14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $102K September 8–14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104K September 8–14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106K September 8–14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $108K September 8–14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110K September 8–14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $98K September 8–14?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $113K September 8–14?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $117K September 8–14?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $119K September 8–14?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $121K September 8–14?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $123K September 8–14?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $125K September 8–14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.