Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $106K September 8–14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb507aed4835b57676d10c9593da86862deb2645c97b34d13257de9dded2464b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,685
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,373
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,685 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01dd…f8bbbacked Yes | 2c | 36,958$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.7 | 119 | 8.4%10 W · 109 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 22c | 9,848$2,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,133.96 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes | 18c | 2,084$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.92 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…c57dbacked Yes | 6c | 750$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7152…faacbacked Yes | 2c | 701$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 94 | 0%0 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 677$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 17c | 636.23$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.31 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6e…c9dbbacked Yes | 22c | 595.91$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758a…f23cbacked No | 80c | 559$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ed…6943backed No | 79c | 75.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4232…4159backed Yes | 22c | 54.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x264f…0633backed No | 79c | 40.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf53…3f0dbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106K September 8–14?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100K September 8–14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $102K September 8–14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104K September 8–14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $108K September 8–14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110K September 8–14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $98K September 8–14?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $113K September 8–14?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $115K September 8–14?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $117K September 8–14?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $119K September 8–14?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $121K September 8–14?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $123K September 8–14?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $125K September 8–14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.