TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $117K September 8–14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$326,126
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$337,677

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $326,126 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2adf…d89cbacked Yes26c22,823$5,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,863.313561.5%83 W · 52 L+16.5wins+0.12per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x33c2…9818backed Yes36c14,507$5,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,276.544242.9%18 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes37c9,675$3,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,593.9258126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes30c8,921$2,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,719.8187828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes43c4,290$1,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,828.6924654.9%135 W · 111 L+16.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf1d4…64aebacked Yes49c4,263$2,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,070.826026.7%16 W · 44 L-5.6wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-33.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xebf0…e275backed No67c4,054$2,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,323.87366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f9b…f652backed No34c4,000$1,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6608231.7%26 W · 56 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61d0…1d86backed No57c3,924$2,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,670.9919439.2%76 W · 118 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd643…0dd4backed No38c3,640$1,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,249.810545.7%48 W · 57 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x50f7…7272backed No67c2,855$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$954.77966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes32c2,854$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$926.1963835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f87…1331backed Yes3c2,230$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cb5…8b87backed No68c2,059$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$658.823023.3%7 W · 23 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked No66c1,515$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.151741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8d3…06eebacked Yes14c1,167$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1602532%8 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+47.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Yes50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001030%3 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick55cpaid-41.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa815…a3c3backed Yes23c1,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2301450%7 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-34%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3d5…4346backed Yes37c1,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.9570%0 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd321…a77fbacked No66c800$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2724763.8%30 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick64cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x801d…d8e0backed Yes33c730$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.913863%87 W · 51 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4290…e2c0backed No61c730$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.378428.6%24 W · 60 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-29.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08c6…8effbacked No34c581.09$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes6c547.37$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8228021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf87b…180abacked Yes32c540$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.83447.1%16 W · 18 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+22.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3303…9266backed No78c515.31$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.312100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x867d…3f3bbacked Yes72c511$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.92560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x896f…9cd4backed No66c500$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1701100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd32…c9c1backed Yes25c500$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1251717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-46.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94b8…0a32backed No72c460$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.31080%8 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+19.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes33c456$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.464721.3%10 W · 37 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c444.28$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.81,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6384…3c83backed No78c413.86$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.73683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick73cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b6e…c9dbbacked Yes36c409.72$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.5714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5877…d3debacked No68c386.83$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.055947.5%28 W · 31 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes35c349.68$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.8737745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe78a…7166backed Yes49c338$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.62250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc73d…7a3abacked No57c320$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.62100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+149%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3b7…74acbacked No54c315$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.22100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+153.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d40…28e9backed No64c314.44$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.735058%29 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34a…98b8backed Yes45c287$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.15250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5551…5616backed Yes48c264$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+43.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6650…71b6backed No60c250$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1003345.5%15 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc41d…6cb0backed No56c223.15$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.153638.9%14 W · 22 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4e8…a3fdbacked No57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-37.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4775…c57dbacked No25c200$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1504216.7%7 W · 35 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick20cpaid+68.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21c5…3533backed No69c199.82$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.014656.5%26 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick62cpaid+11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf14e…86efbacked Yes37c162.16$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603721.6%8 W · 29 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick11cpaid+36.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6102…b506backed No68c145.59$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbabd…3335backed No31c140$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.4121236.8%78 W · 134 L+17.5wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x97a7…49f7backed No79c130$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.89546.3%44 W · 51 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1e7…b286backed No71c123.54$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.83771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+58.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e37…4a79backed Yes49c122$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.7820%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7761…29d8backed No67c120$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66c5…98ecbacked No55c106$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.72100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+138%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x79b2…4874backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302114.3%3 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick30cpaid-72.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x761a…16e6backed No64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362190.5%19 W · 2 L+4.4wins+0.21per pick69cpaid+27.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9456…4f9fbacked No46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x127b…5c1fbacked No52c89$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.72250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick62cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3b7…5456backed Yes69c81$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.89666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x532f…94c3backed No55c73$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.85250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cb9…44f5backed Yes24c64$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.577121.1%15 W · 56 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71bd…28c4backed No55c62$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1242…8dfebacked No71c60$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.651464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c12…93a7backed Yes41c58.1$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.062231.8%7 W · 15 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+23.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8464…5579backed No67c57$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.99977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick67cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdeef…9bb9backed No54c55.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.561258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ed…2a85backed No67c54.66$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.262864.3%18 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick61cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ef…de81backed No45c52.19$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.885637.5%21 W · 35 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-13.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x852a…07d1backed No79c50.63$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.63742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick63cpaid-34.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x45dd…1e20backed No77c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.74052.5%21 W · 19 L-4.8wins-0.12per pick64cpaid-22.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed No68c41.38$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4122550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2501…472cbacked Yes50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-69.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c13…8834backed No62c38$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.56333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-46%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e47…e1ecbacked No60c36.37$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.55366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02ed…6943backed No61c32.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.792763%17 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdf8…564ebacked Yes62c32.37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.33per pick47cpaid-72.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xad45…b8c9backed No53c30.94$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.54937.5%7 W · 86 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-56.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5d8…1319backed Yes36c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5238…a3c3backed Yes57c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+34.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5621…7d7dbacked Yes34c29.97$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80b0…ead2backed Yes45c29.89$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1c0…c012backed No57c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.75250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick62cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee7…1003backed No55c21$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.45250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e5d…7af4backed No73c19.39$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.24369.8%30 W · 13 L+5.1wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+14.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x008d…6958backed No75c18.28$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.52977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick70cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94b7…2c8ebacked Yes62c16.26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.08540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-41.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1b1…2febbacked No70c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.