TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $108K September 8–14?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$111,523
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$110,877

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,523 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x01dd…f8bbbacked Yes2c33,508$823 inLost-$823.461198.4%10 W · 109 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+90.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa279…0371backed No79c10,490$8,321 inWon+$2,169.115444.4%24 W · 30 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2adf…d89cbacked No73c6,141$4,459 inWon+$1,681.5413561.5%83 W · 52 L+16.5wins+0.12per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes24c4,543$1,068 inLost-$1,068.387828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c2,833$32 inLost-$31.561,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes33c2,530$830 inLost-$829.5624654.9%135 W · 111 L+16.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7152…faacbacked Yes2c2,320$43 inLost-$43.37940%0 W · 94 L-0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes37c2,127$778 inLost-$778.2358126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x016e…c700backed No61c1,647$1,000 inWon+$646.556468.8%44 W · 20 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes5c868.09$44 inLost-$43.634721.3%10 W · 37 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes6c751.37$42 inLost-$41.5228021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b6e…c9dbbacked Yes38c540.55$204 inLost-$203.98714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4290…e2c0backed Yes26c500$128 inLost-$1288428.6%24 W · 60 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-29.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4227…1eeabacked No56c300$168 inWon+$1321855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4775…c57dbacked Yes28c188.55$53 inLost-$52.794216.7%7 W · 35 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick20cpaid+68.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4232…4159backed Yes33c175$57 inLost-$57170%0 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x264f…0633backed No69c127.6$88 inWon+$39.41283.3%10 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick68cpaid+18.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5877…d3debacked No60c101.68$61 inWon+$41.145947.5%28 W · 31 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02ed…6943backed No61c65.57$40 inWon+$25.572763%17 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2880…fa70backed No69c50$35 inWon+$15.51978.9%15 W · 4 L+4.2wins+0.22per pick57cpaid+35.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes40c36$14 inLost-$14.464812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa0df…a5efbacked Yes42c35.71$15 inLost-$15650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-19.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97a7…49f7backed Yes47c30$14 inLost-$14.19546.3%44 W · 51 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e5d…7af4backed No61c25$15 inWon+$9.654369.8%30 W · 13 L+5.1wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+14.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8464…5579backed No59c20$12 inWon+$8.2977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick67cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.