Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ec0e3ea6d99ca834a34bba102383202d69914ef60d9ab7116dd9e2599ee7b92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $529,919
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $462,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $529,919 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 264 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d92…4b39backed Yes | 15c | 22,110$3,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,838.31 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 76c | 17,298$13,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,118.52 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0681…f713backed No | 61c | 13,901$8,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,495.91 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 16c | 11,539$1,789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,749.94 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 12c | 10,008$1,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,826.78 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f11…b63fbacked Yes | 23c | 7,445$1,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,760.5 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 8c | 6,322$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,831.6 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c81…3b0cbacked Yes | 24c | 6,109$1,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,631.05 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked No | 75c | 5,803$4,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,337.53 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 7c | 5,720$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,345.86 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfce6…b0d2backed Yes | 20c | 5,442$1,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,340.28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 12c | 5,316$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,689.62 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 52c | 4,873$2,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,320.13 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 72c | 4,636$3,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,329.67 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked Yes | 13c | 4,603$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,019.42 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe351…5c45backed No | 9c | 4,285$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.31 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 17c | 3,828$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,183.66 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cea…4eccbacked No | 69c | 3,500$2,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,416.29 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf40…1bd2backed Yes | 23c | 3,492$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,675.12 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked No | 54c | 3,297$1,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,788.55 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 17c | 3,230$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,697.12 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 31c | 2,994$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,056.37 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 43c | 2,845$1,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,635.37 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 15c | 2,752$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,340.98 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed No | 45c | 2,256$1,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.86 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x800b…9fd2backed Yes | 60c | 2,047$1,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.51 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7079…a828backed Yes | 14c | 1,925$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,665.31 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb11e…f62cbacked No | 69c | 1,869$1,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,287.68 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…8b8dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,836$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,619.37 | 90 | 14.4%13 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 28c | 1,738$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,248.79 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 6c | 1,697$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,596.7 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c4…43e8backed Yes | 10c | 1,567$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,406.61 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…c45fbacked Yes | 56c | 1,561$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.23 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 25cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 12c | 1,439$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,269.32 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 3c | 1,400$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,365 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf62c…3e6abacked Yes | 11c | 1,330$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,179.91 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…bc07backed Yes | 34c | 1,327$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 6c | 1,319$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,240.95 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…2c78backed Yes | 20c | 1,282$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.7 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…e0adbacked Yes | 15c | 1,247$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065.02 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed Yes | 36c | 1,228$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.79 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4407…8f2bbacked Yes | 23c | 1,204$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.31 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc471…72a3backed Yes | 14c | 1,097$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 16cpaid | +110.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x284f…31efbacked No | 13c | 1,074$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.03 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked No | 76c | 1,026$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5952…4a09backed Yes | 24c | 1,005$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…97d0backed No | 80c | 1,000$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.42per pick | 75cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…7226backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c8…0b36backed Yes | 3c | 999.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.5 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06c3…1c87backed Yes | 17c | 998.69$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +101.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 10c | 998.42$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.86 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c8…ff97backed Yes | 16c | 958.26$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +116.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3979…f49ebacked No | 19c | 900$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 19c | 900$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.8 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b84…12febacked Yes | 57c | 842.18$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes | 21c | 811.09$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.73 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f5…e0d0backed Yes | 78c | 789.27$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…27c9backed Yes | 25c | 773.48$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c49…ee5dbacked Yes | 13c | 760.67$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.96 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b10…4abcbacked Yes | 18c | 756.45$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.85 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed No | 79c | 755.88$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.19 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 16c | 753.8$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.49 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 21c | 751.98$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.19 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ed…7aeabacked Yes | 42c | 729.43$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.68 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…0de5backed Yes | 76c | 715.16$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd72…a8ddbacked Yes | 24c | 709.16$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e4…0124backed Yes | 16c | 701.73$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +112.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe10e…cfddbacked Yes | 21c | 650$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.11 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 15c | 614.36$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.19 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…28a8backed Yes | 28c | 613.17$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.99 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c91…3910backed Yes | 62c | 603.92$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked No | 76c | 601.14$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.2 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed No | 75c | 600$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4d…6d87backed Yes | 15c | 576.82$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.85 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 78c | 574.92$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.37 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…2cb0backed Yes | 20c | 509.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.63 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f6…6013backed No | 79c | 504.05$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 37c | 480.56$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.4 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…548fbacked Yes | 36c | 477.5$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.3 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…9818backed Yes | 13c | 475$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked No | 61c | 464.3$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.1 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe157…6db1backed Yes | 40c | 459.81$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.13 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5d…6be6backed Yes | 16c | 458.87$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.95 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9f…c97abacked No | 8c | 452.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…7559backed Yes | 29c | 443.53$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.53 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 18c | 441.01$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.34 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…73e3backed Yes | 6c | 439.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.52 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc99c…5c6bbacked Yes | 62c | 438.33$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 16c | 423.51$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.75 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dc…b2a9backed Yes | 8c | 411.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.3 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb9…5376backed Yes | 6c | 405$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.8 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf209…5d6dbacked Yes | 36c | 402.25$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1734…ddd4backed No | 76c | 400$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.62 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9594…eefabacked Yes | 15c | 398.57$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.04 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 27c | 390.35$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.91 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1f…6f69backed Yes | 59c | 383.42$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.94 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90dd…76ccbacked Yes | 26c | 381$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +283.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0973…8986backed Yes | 32c | 380.09$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.85 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe746…3f6ebacked Yes | 25c | 367.22$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.22 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes | 27c | 364.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.02 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?this page
- Will Elon tweet 1000-1024 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 1025-1049 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 1050-1074 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 1075-1099 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 1100 or more times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 800-824 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 825-849 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 875-899 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 900-924 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 925-949 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 950-974 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 975-999 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 800 times Feb 7-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.