Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 825-849 times Feb 7-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x826549086552e739bd817e51edd1ae093f4a0375ecbe6365b6abbd4b61345d44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $408,947
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $347,448
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $408,947 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x571c…1f49backed Yes | 0c | 70,600$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.2 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 2c | 22,060$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.86 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 16,778$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.68 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 1c | 10,190$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.42 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce6…b0d2backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf40…1bd2backed Yes | 1c | 9,963$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd8…858ebacked Yes | 0c | 7,500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…4b39backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.79 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 1c | 4,677$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.34 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Yes | 0c | 4,200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 1c | 3,750$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 2c | 3,094$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.19 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 4c | 3,035$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b8…9272backed Yes | 1c | 2,800$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 1c | 2,800$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 18c | 2,692$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.17 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7079…a828backed Yes | 9c | 1,993$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked Yes | 15c | 1,832$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.66 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…2cb0backed Yes | 20c | 1,517$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.68 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c49…ee5dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,503$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb48…3b3fbacked Yes | 18c | 1,420$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.67 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…8b8dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,399$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 90 | 14.4%13 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf62c…3e6abacked Yes | 9c | 1,335$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aab…c911backed Yes | 3c | 1,325$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -69%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x247d…7d27backed Yes | 4c | 1,303$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x956d…6a3ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,265$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6193…58cabacked Yes | 3c | 1,250$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…2c78backed Yes | 8c | 1,156$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.24 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 2c | 1,137$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -62%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc471…72a3backed Yes | 10c | 1,062$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 16cpaid | +110.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d87…8a2dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,061$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4d…6d87backed Yes | 16c | 1,040$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.43 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…7226backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c8…0b36backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2840…8361backed Yes | 5c | 865.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 12c | 859.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb11e…f62cbacked Yes | 15c | 809.57$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.64 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…e0adbacked Yes | 16c | 800$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4407…8f2bbacked Yes | 13c | 780.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 19c | 775.42$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.34 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd15b…a8c3backed Yes | 15c | 723.97$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 2c | 685.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…28a8backed Yes | 17c | 614.95$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.86 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 17c | 555$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.35 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 75c | 544$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.84 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…3024backed Yes | 2c | 529.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 2c | 482.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 14c | 394.62$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.25 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e04…1b98backed Yes | 27c | 372$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 13c | 368.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b10…4abcbacked Yes | 15c | 352.45$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.87 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 13c | 331.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5952…4a09backed Yes | 4c | 319.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed Yes | 10c | 286.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe746…3f6ebacked Yes | 15c | 275.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 9c | 262.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5019…1fefbacked Yes | 5c | 241.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28f…b499backed Yes | 22c | 227.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.36 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed Yes | 8c | 200.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 181 | 18.8%34 W · 147 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d91…a32abacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…a548backed Yes | 15c | 189.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dc…b2a9backed Yes | 6c | 180$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes | 14c | 176.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…ebf8backed Yes | 13c | 174.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f5…ccbabacked Yes | 14c | 171.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 14c | 168.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9671…70dcbacked Yes | 9c | 160$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7704…a121backed Yes | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfce6…9f5dbacked Yes | 17c | 137.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f29…3d27backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2958…0c6dbacked Yes | 16c | 124.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 84 | 13.1%11 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4f…6b7abacked Yes | 16c | 122.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacd0…2491backed Yes | 13c | 117.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4759…ec88backed Yes | 15c | 113.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 18c | 112.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…7ff6backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6194…6922backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ed…7aeabacked Yes | 16c | 95.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02c4…001dbacked Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f4…0336backed Yes | 13c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 18c | 89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6334…1c52backed Yes | 23c | 78.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec91…c98fbacked Yes | 14c | 77.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 16c | 76.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x687f…cefebacked Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…aa04backed Yes | 16c | 64.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed Yes | 20c | 51.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…d83fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd74…d028backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…fe00backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 825-849 times Feb 7-14?this page
- Will Elon tweet 1000-1024 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 1025-1049 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 1050-1074 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 1075-1099 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 1100 or more times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 800-824 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 875-899 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 900-924 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 925-949 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 950-974 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 975-999 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 800 times Feb 7-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.