Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 975-999 times Feb 7-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x773a01b87c549a10fea614d8a306db71071e7bf6765717d36babefb82fb71171
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $241,086
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $241,086 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc90…a896backed Yes | 1c | 17,813$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.85 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 4c | 12,100$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.12 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 2c | 5,500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.5 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 3c | 4,181$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.89 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f11…b63fbacked Yes | 10c | 4,129$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.35 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b8…9272backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…3dd4backed Yes | 7c | 3,500$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 9c | 3,303$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.69 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 12c | 2,146$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.99 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 4c | 2,118$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 5c | 1,980$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…e0adbacked Yes | 4c | 1,778$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.78 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb249…1003backed Yes | 3c | 1,305$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc786…d82ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,138$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.77 | 56 | 10.7%6 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…eb05backed Yes | 1c | 1,005$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x353f…3b8dbacked Yes | 2c | 930.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…8b8dbacked Yes | 5c | 855.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 90 | 14.4%13 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d77…869bbacked Yes | 8c | 852.19$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.94 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd48…db01backed Yes | 6c | 850.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -47%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9671…70dcbacked Yes | 10c | 839.01$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.85 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…28a8backed Yes | 11c | 777.9$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.73 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 10c | 767.01$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.94 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1a…31a7backed Yes | 2c | 699.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 1c | 688.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06bd…e6f5backed Yes | 11c | 646.32$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.46 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 5c | 565.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 10c | 516.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…3024backed Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06be…8a46backed Yes | 5c | 449.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 54 | 7.4%4 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 6c | 422.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x107f…c83fbacked Yes | 16c | 402.08$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb9…5376backed Yes | 3c | 360$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…2c78backed Yes | 9c | 340$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ed…7aeabacked Yes | 8c | 312.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…a548backed Yes | 9c | 305.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 6c | 265.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62c5…31ccbacked Yes | 10c | 245.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe348…ef84backed Yes | 5c | 203.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e0…8412backed Yes | 9c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 84 | 15.5%13 W · 71 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b3…7345backed Yes | 8c | 165.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dc…b2a9backed Yes | 9c | 133$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b10…4abcbacked Yes | 10c | 122$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 118 | 10.2%12 W · 106 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…515dbacked Yes | 13c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 975-999 times Feb 7-14?this page
- Will Elon tweet 1000-1024 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 1025-1049 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 1050-1074 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 1075-1099 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 1100 or more times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 800-824 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 825-849 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 875-899 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 900-924 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 925-949 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 950-974 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 800 times Feb 7-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.