Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet less than 800 times Feb 7-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafd524eb195251f56d98aa812df3215ab7881f607bab2aa690981a66db5d6a1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $99,698
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,120
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,698 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96fd…9a5dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 10c | 2,296$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.96 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 8c | 2,078$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.76 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdebd…4671backed No | 80c | 924.85$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.97 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f8…3ef8backed Yes | 20c | 679.85$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.97 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x324e…1e02backed No | 79c | 525.45$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.16 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…2c78backed Yes | 13c | 520.02$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.08 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e04…1b98backed Yes | 21c | 482.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb249…1003backed Yes | 12c | 372.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd39…8a1dbacked Yes | 29c | 342.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 13c | 290.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…d2afbacked Yes | 14c | 285.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 80c | 277$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2684…d3d6backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…f6aabacked Yes | 10c | 248.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 15c | 194$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f14…468ebacked Yes | 15c | 168.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c4…001dbacked Yes | 14c | 168.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…e0adbacked No | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed Yes | 12c | 149.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…14babacked Yes | 11c | 132.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4759…ec88backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c7…15c0backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…4f34backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9f…c97abacked Yes | 11c | 94.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa025…56d1backed Yes | 16c | 63.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad2…5d21backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8f…d077backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…fe00backed No | 78c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet less than 800 times Feb 7-14?this page
- Will Elon tweet 1000-1024 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 1025-1049 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 1050-1074 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 1075-1099 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 1100 or more times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 800-824 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 825-849 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 875-899 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 900-924 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 925-949 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 950-974 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 975-999 times Feb 7-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.