Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 900-924 times Feb 7-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8735f9017f390041999d2df6eda0b912281d88fc64f303d4b49bb3fa1f408239
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $317,842
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $194,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $317,842 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 194 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 0c | 21,875$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.95 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 6c | 15,661$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.89 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked Yes | 3c | 9,013$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.82 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 9c | 7,598$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.7 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc786…d82ebacked Yes | 4c | 4,881$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.95 | 56 | 10.7%6 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 4,340$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 149 | 14.1%21 W · 128 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f11…b63fbacked Yes | 16c | 4,173$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.31 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 9c | 3,958$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.5 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…2d90backed Yes | 6c | 3,730$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.57 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 5c | 3,624$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.27 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 19c | 3,412$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.52 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 11c | 3,210$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.35 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 4c | 3,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 20c | 2,696$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.24 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 20c | 2,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe351…5c45backed Yes | 8c | 2,326$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.01 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 6c | 2,231$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…8b8dbacked Yes | 29c | 2,223$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.4 | 90 | 14.4%13 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 21c | 2,106$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.37 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 13c | 1,869$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.34 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a93…ecf9backed Yes | 21c | 1,800$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.88 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5088…8844backed Yes | 5c | 1,786$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.05 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 10c | 1,747$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.82 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf62c…3e6abacked Yes | 26c | 1,629$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.51 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…bc07backed Yes | 5c | 1,600$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…3dd4backed Yes | 11c | 1,550$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…7226backed Yes | 17c | 1,400$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf40…1bd2backed Yes | 10c | 1,366$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.12 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…e0adbacked Yes | 12c | 1,300$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.7 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd803…1362backed Yes | 8c | 1,273$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…72a1backed Yes | 6c | 1,270$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.89 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7079…a828backed Yes | 33c | 1,212$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4d…6d87backed Yes | 16c | 1,190$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.11 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…3024backed Yes | 14c | 1,189$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.36 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 18c | 1,175$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.32 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9671…70dcbacked Yes | 17c | 1,093$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.17 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc471…72a3backed Yes | 19c | 1,065$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 16cpaid | +110.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed Yes | 2c | 1,058$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36a6…52c7backed Yes | 17c | 1,010$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.1 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 12c | 998.8$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 27c | 948.03$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.98 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bd…6892backed Yes | 24c | 899.98$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.5 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0681…f713backed Yes | 1c | 888.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35f7…4cafbacked Yes | 5c | 876.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06bd…e6f5backed Yes | 21c | 834.51$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.06 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d87…8a2dbacked Yes | 2c | 826.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 21c | 819.86$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.78 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7be…cc5cbacked Yes | 26c | 776.98$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.01 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked No | 66c | 771.41$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.39 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ed…09cebacked Yes | 13c | 768.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f29…6f18backed Yes | 4c | 744.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd2…eecfbacked Yes | 3c | 739.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 18c | 731.1$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.23 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c49…ee5dbacked Yes | 13c | 701.4$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.47 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…a548backed Yes | 15c | 700.39$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.36 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 12c | 680$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce6…b0d2backed Yes | 25c | 678.16$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 20c | 653.29$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.79 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 18c | 623.06$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9f…c97abacked Yes | 3c | 610$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ab…939cbacked Yes | 3c | 600$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…28a8backed Yes | 19c | 595.52$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.43 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b10…4abcbacked Yes | 14c | 594.79$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.04 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0b…2341backed Yes | 34c | 588.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x910c…d7a7backed Yes | 4c | 583.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 75 | 16%12 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf209…5d6dbacked Yes | 18c | 559.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…2cb0backed Yes | 18c | 558.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…2c78backed Yes | 13c | 557.35$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.44 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x874d…ec29backed Yes | 18c | 552.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5d…6be6backed No | 74c | 545.1$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.83 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0973…8986backed Yes | 28c | 541.98$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Yes | 4c | 526.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc90…a896backed Yes | 38c | 525.68$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7704…a121backed Yes | 25c | 519.62$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6697…057abacked Yes | 14c | 508.64$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.66 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…33ccbacked Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe10e…cfddbacked Yes | 19c | 500$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.19 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe746…3f6ebacked Yes | 12c | 494.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4872…128fbacked Yes | 22c | 463.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.86 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 25c | 460$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 88 | 22.7%20 W · 68 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4f…6b7abacked Yes | 21c | 458.18$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06be…8a46backed Yes | 12c | 450$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 54 | 7.4%4 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 13c | 400.9$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.83 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed No | 74c | 393.89$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.03 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dc…b2a9backed Yes | 14c | 386.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.93 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c8…ff97backed Yes | 27c | 366.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +116.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5740…db31backed Yes | 11c | 358.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 14c | 302.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes | 26c | 301.1$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.76 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed Yes | 24c | 299.69$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.1 | 181 | 18.8%34 W · 147 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x286e…adb7backed Yes | 18c | 290$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…8d2fbacked Yes | 20c | 284.24$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.85 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…548fbacked Yes | 7c | 284.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781f…6763backed Yes | 18c | 278.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +234.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 19c | 260.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 10c | 240.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 18c | 233.48$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd28f…b499backed Yes | 31c | 215.91$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.71 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b9…98ffbacked Yes | 32c | 215.17$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.14 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 900-924 times Feb 7-14?this page
- Will Elon tweet 1000-1024 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 1025-1049 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 1050-1074 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 1075-1099 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 1100 or more times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 800-824 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 825-849 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 875-899 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 925-949 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 950-974 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 975-999 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 800 times Feb 7-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.