Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 950-974 times Feb 7-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcacf4de241dddacde7c4de804db3cccde2fb643ee555d20475994575c295b918
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $215,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $120,146
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $215,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc90…a896backed Yes | 2c | 13,884$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 7c | 12,761$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.26 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b84…74c6backed Yes | 7c | 8,756$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.37 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa77c…f762backed Yes | 6c | 8,346$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.75 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 2c | 5,874$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.67 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f11…b63fbacked Yes | 5c | 5,424$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.64 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 2c | 4,965$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.54 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 15c | 4,118$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.89 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 9c | 3,832$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.73 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…03c2backed Yes | 1c | 3,061$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…e0adbacked Yes | 10c | 2,819$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.15 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…72a1backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 10c | 2,369$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70c7…a3dfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,174$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…3dd4backed Yes | 12c | 1,771$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.59 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc786…d82ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,547$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.15 | 56 | 10.7%6 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b8…9272backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 17c | 1,450$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.82 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 5c | 1,414$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.93 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9671…70dcbacked Yes | 14c | 1,267$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.16 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 13c | 1,150$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.35 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab0e…6a86backed Yes | 12c | 1,122$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.32 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…7226backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.14 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 1c | 999.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…a548backed Yes | 13c | 861.7$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.15 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…3024backed Yes | 12c | 852.23$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.14 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…8b8dbacked Yes | 7c | 833.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 90 | 14.4%13 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 18c | 789.98$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.84 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 4c | 750.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd48…db01backed Yes | 7c | 742.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -47%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 7c | 600$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x353f…3b8dbacked Yes | 2c | 581.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd3…ef31backed Yes | 9c | 577.62$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06bd…e6f5backed Yes | 18c | 570.23$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.51 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 12c | 536.58$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.07 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4f…6b7abacked Yes | 19c | 518.95$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.97 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…2c78backed Yes | 5c | 518.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781f…6763backed Yes | 5c | 517.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +234.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1a…31a7backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dc…b2a9backed Yes | 8c | 494.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7704…a121backed Yes | 20c | 490.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 8c | 454.52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac56…5b67backed Yes | 26c | 454.32$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 427.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe746…3f6ebacked Yes | 5c | 426.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06be…8a46backed Yes | 10c | 421.8$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 54 | 7.4%4 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x107f…c83fbacked Yes | 26c | 400$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 5c | 354.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 15c | 328.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…2cb0backed Yes | 25c | 318.21$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…2ad4backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4872…128fbacked Yes | 26c | 263.92$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.52 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb9…5376backed Yes | 7c | 249.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed Yes | 4c | 247.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x246c…4c1abacked Yes | 8c | 246.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa47f…0602backed Yes | 16c | 245.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62c5…31ccbacked Yes | 11c | 234.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b10…4abcbacked Yes | 16c | 224$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb11e…f62cbacked Yes | 5c | 220$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacd0…2491backed Yes | 7c | 214.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…a17bbacked Yes | 9c | 212.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 11.6%11 W · 84 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2f…66b2backed Yes | 18c | 210.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 77 | 24.7%19 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5043…1399backed Yes | 10c | 201.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf996…f02abacked Yes | 16c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 22c | 199.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x599d…f3cabacked Yes | 25c | 180.79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 8c | 166.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…28a8backed Yes | 11c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd72…a8ddbacked Yes | 24c | 135.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac1…c817backed Yes | 19c | 134.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf011…994fbacked Yes | 22c | 133.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe49…e231backed Yes | 13c | 124.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6697…057abacked Yes | 16c | 123.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe348…ef84backed Yes | 14c | 104.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de4…899ebacked Yes | 19c | 95.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d53…398bbacked Yes | 18c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…515dbacked Yes | 15c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43e2…88bcbacked Yes | 17c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9174…3af9backed Yes | 26c | 75.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7939…bcd4backed Yes | 26c | 65.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…cf47backed No | 76c | 59.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe863…e221backed Yes | 19c | 57.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4470…d1fdbacked Yes | 23c | 47.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf4…fdbebacked Yes | 26c | 46.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3fcbbacked Yes | 25c | 39.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 950-974 times Feb 7-14?this page
- Will Elon tweet 1000-1024 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 1025-1049 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 1050-1074 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 1075-1099 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 1100 or more times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 800-824 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 825-849 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 875-899 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 900-924 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 925-949 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 975-999 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 800 times Feb 7-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.