World Politics · resolved market
Will the Red Bloc win by 4–7 seats?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3661254892dd6ef93d031f52ee16db8ee2c1b2db284cf141aa2d641d919e2be7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,280
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,280 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 78c | 3,105$2,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.54 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed No | 6c | 2,040$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.84 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 77c | 1,937$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.71 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed Yes | 42c | 1,889$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,092.14 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 36c | 1,433$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.34 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 44c | 1,326$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.39 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 2c | 1,103$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 11c | 912.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.78 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 10c | 898.47$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.35 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -61%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 21c | 665.97$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.85 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +262.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 21c | 665.96$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.85 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +15.3wins | +0.21per pick | 15cpaid | +188.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 27c | 573.66$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.53 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 18c | 570.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.83 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 25c | 519.57$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.78 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f5…c1bdbacked No | 55c | 512$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 62c | 494.8$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.12 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 37c | 450.84$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.13 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 19c | 408.51$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.06 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…1115backed Yes | 17c | 406.41$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.41 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 74c | 359$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.28 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 38c | 310$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.4 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d51…06b3backed Yes | 23c | 306.25$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66d8…73b3backed Yes | 69c | 265.77$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05fc…f78ebacked Yes | 19c | 262$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.9 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…20ccbacked Yes | 22c | 228.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.57 | 113 | 31%35 W · 78 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 77c | 202.49$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.06 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 7c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +11.0wins | +0.18per pick | 31cpaid | +90%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.5 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 8cpaid | +152.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…9bcabacked Yes | 16c | 129.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba4c…9dc3backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3124…014bbacked Yes | 26c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 30c | 53.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Red Bloc win by 4–7 seats?this page
- Will the Blue Bloc win by 1–4 seats?No won
- Will the Blue Bloc win by 5–8 seats?No won
- Will the Blue Bloc win by 9 or more seats?No won
- Will the Red Bloc win by 0–3 seats?No won
- Will the Red Bloc win by 12–15 seats?No won
- Will the Red Bloc win by 16 or more seats?No won
- Will the Red Bloc win by 8–11 seats?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.