Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on November 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff41ca247e9fdcdb303870b8f094cf4f2da8983b74713dd634a81fedc84f5159
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,168
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,112
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,168 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 7c | 1,981$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,840.14 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 20c | 1,980$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,582.88 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b0…5663backed Yes | 18c | 1,930$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,580.43 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 73c | 1,606$1,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.22 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 26c | 1,443$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.41 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,124$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,072.85 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 9c | 1,100$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.8 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed Yes | 79c | 1,025$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.56 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…36fdbacked No | 20c | 929.98$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.33 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 17c | 800$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.45 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d820backed Yes | 7c | 796.83$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.27 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 5c | 561.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.3 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 6c | 511.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.47 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…938ebacked No | 43c | 368.68$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 6c | 364.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.23 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 8c | 340.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.34 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed No | 9c | 333$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 11c | 322.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.18 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 7c | 304.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.82 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 207 | 28%58 W · 149 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc107…0137backed Yes | 46c | 281.61$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.68 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe966…0228backed Yes | 9c | 274.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.09 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 7c | 225.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.37 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 9c | 222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 7c | 222$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 10c | 213.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.14 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.97 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73a6…8924backed Yes | 21c | 191.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.22 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 190.76$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 7c | 151.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.1 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8972…ab4bbacked Yes | 19c | 151$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.83 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 23c | 143.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.96 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b9…6521backed Yes | 17c | 68.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.36 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on November 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 47°F or higher on November 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 37-38°F on November 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 39-40°F on November 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on November 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 43-44°F on November 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.