Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 43-44°F on November 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7e226f32d2c3d1be174beaae20cfb0dc6356f3bb9136f36e561fe96781330cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 76c | 6,048$4,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,620.95 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…36fdbacked Yes | 9c | 890$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.2 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 30c | 718.27$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.17 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 23c | 657.89$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8972…ab4bbacked Yes | 63c | 576.48$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.11 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 56c | 518.69$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.9 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…4e46backed Yes | 68c | 509.74$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.23 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…f9e3backed No | 62c | 499.99$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.42 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3749…7ad0backed Yes | 70c | 449.99$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba6…01c8backed Yes | 42c | 430.49$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…9655backed Yes | 40c | 382.26$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.29 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 3c | 335$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 41c | 292.95$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.06 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a6…8924backed No | 20c | 254.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.09 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 63c | 243.31$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.51 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…0540backed Yes | 71c | 240.78$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 55c | 213.87$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.58 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 70c | 201.15$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.81 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.99 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked No | 57c | 195.03$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.44 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8528…d446backed Yes | 72c | 167.81$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc107…0137backed No | 44c | 162.11$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.23 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…4b2bbacked Yes | 75c | 140$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.2 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 49c | 125.69$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.51 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…7828backed Yes | 49c | 121.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 34c | 120.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 34c | 120$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…e36ebacked Yes | 60c | 116.53$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.08 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 23c | 113.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.7 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…446dbacked Yes | 57c | 110$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e1…d554backed Yes | 47c | 106.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d820backed Yes | 58c | 100.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…6a38backed Yes | 59c | 100.01$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.61 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.98 | 92 | 30.4%28 W · 64 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed No | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.99 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed No | 71c | 79.01$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0973…40c4backed Yes | 45c | 77.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 20c | 77.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.64 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 53c | 71$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f6…46eabacked Yes | 51c | 69.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6300…7b4fbacked No | 44c | 68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d1…d015backed No | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaed2…8e93backed Yes | 47c | 66.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc00a…2424backed Yes | 24c | 63.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes | 41c | 62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 42c | 50.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd846…7c5abacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…885fbacked No | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…0b71backed Yes | 43c | 46.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7550…60f9backed Yes | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4be…58f2backed Yes | 50c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed No | 25c | 44.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.51 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc38d…48e3backed Yes | 61c | 41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…d26abacked Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 53c | 39.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6c…a93cbacked Yes | 69c | 36.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…87adbacked Yes | 60c | 35.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa8…cdc6backed Yes | 67c | 34.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f1…d32abacked No | 59c | 34.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed No | 51c | 33.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 53c | 31.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfe…932ebacked Yes | 51c | 29.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc440…6149backed Yes | 43c | 25.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0594…90a5backed Yes | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb787…1570backed Yes | 48c | 21.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5222…d2f6backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca9b…217fbacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…7289backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…390fbacked Yes | 73c | 19.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e8…4c01backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 43-44°F on November 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 47°F or higher on November 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 37-38°F on November 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 39-40°F on November 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on November 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on November 21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.