Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on November 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf53eee22b8d0582238e9f045ba18632f0bac1853b27841effc2f4d23530f7765
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 2c | 2,370$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…d212backed Yes | 15c | 1,167$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.03 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad7b…80c9backed Yes | 22c | 790.93$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.5 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 60c | 774.76$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.95 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 6c | 739.91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…4e46backed Yes | 41c | 723.59$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.55 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…b193backed Yes | 32c | 681.89$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.42 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 10c | 661.03$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.84 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc56…5886backed No | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +215.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 12c | 459.49$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.94 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49e…5110backed Yes | 14c | 401.8$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.67 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 11c | 396.15$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 393.18$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.95 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eec…be17backed No | 66c | 380.35$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.49 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.22per pick | 48cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1578…4b73backed Yes | 17c | 357.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.08 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34f3…48e4backed Yes | 33c | 316.72$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.33 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…9949backed Yes | 12c | 316.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 14c | 299.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked Yes | 22c | 299.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 13c | 298.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 207 | 28%58 W · 149 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba6…01c8backed Yes | 51c | 296.51$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8972…ab4bbacked No | 63c | 284$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.08 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 27c | 223.31$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.34 | 113 | 23%26 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d11…36cdbacked Yes | 36c | 221.78$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 26c | 215.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.56 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 6c | 211.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 207$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.59 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0149…fa64backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed No | 45c | 199.91$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.95 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 23c | 185$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 25c | 160.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 160.34$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 12c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e3cabacked Yes | 40c | 149.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.25 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 143.79$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.97 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…15e2backed Yes | 38c | 140.36$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.77 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…5827backed Yes | 40c | 138.24$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b9…6521backed Yes | 17c | 129.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8b…1614backed Yes | 39c | 127.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…e36ebacked Yes | 49c | 116.85$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.11 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 26c | 109.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…afb9backed Yes | 24c | 104.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 102.71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x327f…1dd2backed Yes | 13c | 102.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…6a38backed Yes | 48c | 100.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x949a…721cbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea02…23d1backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…0540backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53e9…492cbacked Yes | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…5fadbacked Yes | 35c | 95.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…bb3fbacked Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…f95abacked Yes | 24c | 83.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…0b71backed Yes | 48c | 81.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 51c | 80.77$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5320…f3b2backed Yes | 15c | 78.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d1…d015backed Yes | 39c | 76.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d820backed Yes | 48c | 74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc159…00e2backed Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 52c | 67.71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes | 39c | 65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 60c | 55.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…64d8backed Yes | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 38c | 48.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked Yes | 41c | 48.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4be…58f2backed Yes | 39c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…1454backed No | 56c | 40.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec1c…cd68backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…b701backed Yes | 37c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607d…9511backed Yes | 46c | 34.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62bb…df7dbacked No | 64c | 28.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 66c | 26.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 53c | 22.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f81…86fbbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 59c | 17.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on November 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 47°F or higher on November 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 37-38°F on November 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 39-40°F on November 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 43-44°F on November 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on November 21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.