UFC · resolved market
UFC: Holmes vs. Rowston
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bae7acc07dd758b4657eb08c0a07ab69de75ba8eeb6eaa2812c278ebe2596bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rowstonof Holmes, Rowston
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,974
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,341
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,974 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Rowston | 44c | 5,005$2,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,790.74 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Holmes | 54c | 3,000$1,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,630 | 137 | 35.8%49 W · 88 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Holmes | 58c | 2,050$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,187.74 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Rowston | 48c | 1,237$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.89 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Holmes | 12c | 1,166$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.92 | 61 | 9.8%6 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Holmes | 12c | 1,152$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.21 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +272.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe895…c3dabacked Holmes | 54c | 660$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.4 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Holmes | 49c | 539.83$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.52 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +23.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Rowston | 46c | 400$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Holmes | 54c | 400$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cb…cbfcbacked Holmes | 55c | 327.27$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Holmes | 57c | 250$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Holmes | 53c | 220$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.6 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd19e…9781backed Holmes | 53c | 216.5$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Rowston | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Rowston | 47c | 197.54$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.7 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfc…edb9backed Holmes | 55c | 185$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.75 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Rowston | 46c | 170.97$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.45 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Rowston | 42c | 125$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.25 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9294…bcb4backed Rowston | 47c | 101.17$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Holmes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…cf27backed Rowston | 47c | 85.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.51 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Holmes | 54c | 85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Holmes | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe016…424bbacked Holmes | 56c | 76.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Rowston | 43c | 51.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad1…8c20backed Holmes | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Holmes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Holmes | 57c | 24.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 136 | 47.8%65 W · 71 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC: Holmes vs. Rowstonthis page
- UFC: Cuozzi vs. JimenezJimenez won
- UFC: Exposito vs. DelanoDelano won
- UFC: Hokit vs. Uriel Hokit won
- UFC: Saikumar vs. Scott Scott won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.