Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 47-48°F on November 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd67dc868e3ebf0d1d7e304eee727a6707de0b0283062b7244ee5de0bdd5fe7d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,567
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,567 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2441…a2f5backed No | 0c | 10,600$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed No | 0c | 5,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 32c | 3,988$1,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,697.24 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdab…47a8backed No | 0c | 3,550$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad7b…80c9backed Yes | 44c | 1,807$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,004 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,693$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed No | 43c | 1,075$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.26 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed No | 1c | 1,020$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3e…9dafbacked No | 2c | 941.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 38c | 849.52$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.57 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 42c | 806.28$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.27 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…2a5cbacked Yes | 34c | 700$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.5 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +144.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 13c | 664.76$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.4 | 92 | 30.4%28 W · 64 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eec…be17backed Yes | 23c | 662.44$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.44 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.22per pick | 48cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0197…ea5cbacked No | 10c | 570$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 33c | 543.44$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.12 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…e3e1backed Yes | 76c | 458.62$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.34 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 19c | 368.01$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.63 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 20c | 349.49$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.92 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 9c | 301.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.14 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 48c | 263.99$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.17 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 57c | 226.13$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.23 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 9c | 222$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.02 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…fc73backed Yes | 68c | 182.97$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…0274backed Yes | 20c | 170$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.2 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae3e…5f0bbacked Yes | 36c | 168.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.11 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 18c | 154.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.68 | 113 | 23%26 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 27c | 148.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.67 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 25c | 117.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.07 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 102$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 50c | 100.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 19c | 83.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.67 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e08…4581backed No | 66c | 77.67$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04cf…7660backed No | 47c | 62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 74c | 56.73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.16 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a98…d85abacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf9…02f5backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebe…e5ddbacked Yes | 52c | 46.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x285b…23cebacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b6…93ccbacked No | 80c | 27.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Yes | 54c | 21.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d8…31f1backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa0…4963backed No | 79c | 17.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9b…43f0backed Yes | 75c | 17.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 47-48°F on November 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 38°F or below on November 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 49°F or higher on November 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 39-40°F on November 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 43-44°F on November 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on November 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.