Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 49°F or higher on November 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ec8bd98a5e6719bc7cc32116b37a57baec2f70a843a7a15279ccd24419ff769
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,620
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,620 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 9c | 9,539$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.52 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eec…be17backed Yes | 51c | 7,412$3,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,770.52 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.22per pick | 48cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 1c | 6,051$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 20c | 5,193$1,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,032.21 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c8…441dbacked Yes | 3c | 5,033$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.08 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…2a5cbacked Yes | 4c | 4,664$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.64 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +144.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 4c | 4,019$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.06 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad7b…80c9backed No | 29c | 4,013$1,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,865.93 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb0…611abacked Yes | 23c | 3,694$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.74 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…fed1backed Yes | 75c | 2,000$1,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,504.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed Yes | 1c | 1,420$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 36c | 1,122$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.96 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…a8ddbacked Yes | 4c | 956.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 927.49$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 66c | 825.59$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.17 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e2…4404backed Yes | 3c | 804.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3c…c600backed Yes | 41c | 793.9$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 56c | 646.96$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.94 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed Yes | 27c | 609.74$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.01 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 35c | 543.44$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.65 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcae0…c7b0backed Yes | 70c | 527.1$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.8 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6435…9207backed Yes | 49c | 482.76$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -72%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 31c | 449.2$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.45 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…7aafbacked No | 15c | 447$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.46 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 46c | 389.84$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.15 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 44c | 383.83$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.53 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 30c | 352.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.79 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x227f…41e3backed Yes | 49c | 351.79$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.18 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 43c | 344$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.24 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed Yes | 9c | 316.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…fc73backed Yes | 38c | 250$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.96 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd49e…5110backed No | 26c | 238.96$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.83 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 33c | 217.27$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.74 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd29…fd24backed Yes | 53c | 203.63$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.78 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…e3e1backed No | 64c | 203.28$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.06 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…9071backed Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x285b…23cebacked Yes | 47c | 200$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd83a…3609backed No | 55c | 192.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.67 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 32c | 168.65$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.51 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 34c | 160$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x107f…505cbacked No | 27c | 157.68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 61c | 152.32$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…0919backed No | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 24c | 149.7$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea0…d508backed No | 37c | 135.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 22c | 108.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.49 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 63c | 105.09$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.77 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 59c | 100.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fe…9182backed Yes | 73c | 86.56$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.19 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…0274backed No | 25c | 79.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…fc2bbacked No | 26c | 77.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 77c | 72.75$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34f3…48e4backed No | 38c | 51.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8761…514cbacked No | 35c | 45.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…c90ebacked Yes | 48c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…6d52backed Yes | 73c | 41.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6611…2859backed No | 45c | 39.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 39c | 33.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0878…7b50backed No | 37c | 28.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 72cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…cfedbacked Yes | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0594…90a5backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d8…31f1backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0197…ea5cbacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88be…4b4ebacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7587…a61abacked Yes | 76c | 19.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.36per pick | 65cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 49°F or higher on November 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 38°F or below on November 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 39-40°F on November 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 43-44°F on November 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on November 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 47-48°F on November 27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.