UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Mingyang and Sterling
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe43ce69101d24b171eb7b65818a85b8a690981e46b591faa35684df1f0f59fcc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,590
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,590 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 1c | 7,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 61 | 9.8%6 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 39c | 2,826$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,733.83 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 47c | 1,551$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.37 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +23.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked Yes | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 16c | 874$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.84 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +272.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02b7…33cbbacked Yes | 59c | 808.71$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 17c | 470$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.9 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +291.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Yes | 50c | 420.44$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.22 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +61%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…3608backed Yes | 62c | 386.14$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 36c | 298.38$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.94 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 32c | 264.27$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.71 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0679…bebbbacked Yes | 65c | 230.77$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…ddb8backed No | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 59cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe016…424bbacked Yes | 65c | 198.38$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.95 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c1…8d10backed Yes | 59c | 185.07$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.02 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c0…93e6backed Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…4323backed Yes | 66c | 139.37$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb408…f21bbacked Yes | 67c | 89.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 43c | 81.79$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…d596backed Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ff…f464backed Yes | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3493…40afbacked Yes | 65c | 37.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e94…db47backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 113 | 64.6%73 W · 40 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 59c | 17.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb82…291cbacked Yes | 60c | 16.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Mingyang and Sterling this page
- UFC Fight Night: Mingyang and Acosta No won
- UFC Fight Night: Mingyang and Ortega No won
- UFC Fight Night: Walker and Borjas No won
- UFC Fight Night: Walker and Ortega No won
- UFC Fight Night: Walker and PavlovichYes won
- UFC Fight Night: Walker and Sterling Yes won
- UFC Fight Night: Walker and SumudaerjiYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.