Earnings · resolved market
Will Blackstone (BX) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x385f1a014c7adc38e3f859a3f6510cabed43569b9fb8d10d1b88b4ae10f591c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,746
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57ac…2d85backed Yes | 4c | 12,909$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.07 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 69c | 3,820$2,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,189.93 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 11c | 2,544$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.84 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +5.5wins | +0.16per pick | 7cpaid | +324.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed No | 37c | 1,814$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,149.54 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,585$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked Yes | 64c | 1,329$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.03 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…8ea6backed Yes | 4c | 1,190$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f5…be7bbacked Yes | 63c | 901$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.63 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2d…f033backed Yes | 63c | 810.97$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +73%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 52c | 770.81$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.62 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes | 17c | 709.16$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.85 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 22c | 676.38$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.77 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 36c | 674.99$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.74 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -18.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 64c | 671.09$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.06 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f88…bd2bbacked Yes | 65c | 537.18$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.67 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 64c | 495.57$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.02 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 35c | 335.09$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.75 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…623dbacked Yes | 48c | 327.95$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.9 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 12c | 291$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 62c | 250$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73d3…86f1backed Yes | 78c | 250$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x109e…0a59backed No | 39c | 244.69$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.98 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 21c | 233.33$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…8f06backed Yes | 64c | 216.76$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…37dabacked No | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed Yes | 55c | 199.98$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.99 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd87…dd8bbacked Yes | 68c | 190$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.1 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…4f17backed Yes | 70c | 172.02$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.05 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…16bdbacked Yes | 66c | 150$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 27c | 135$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.1 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 30c | 126.48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.54 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0c…ee86backed Yes | 72c | 110.21$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e92…cd3dbacked No | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c0…be99backed Yes | 57c | 99.6$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.21 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 79c | 99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.21 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79e6…8336backed Yes | 64c | 95.02$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 36c | 82.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.47 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +107.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 78c | 80$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked Yes | 57c | 78.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…613fbacked No | 36c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed Yes | 74c | 67.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 63 | 71.4%45 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe806…5445backed No | 31c | 63.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +218.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5343…0b0fbacked Yes | 63c | 59.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 117 | 71.8%84 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce15…cbb7backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2443…354cbacked Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 69c | 33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ae…0e0ebacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…fe6abacked Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcc…8cc1backed Yes | 70c | 25.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…dca6backed Yes | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x751d…daeebacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8d…d05bbacked Yes | 70c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.