Movies · resolved market
Will 'Nosferatu' win Best Cinematography in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21dd2645311b12c70bb1ebebc120c7ae3dc84f525cc8344cd5a1f4832386068b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,781
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 1c | 7,500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes | 21c | 4,019$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,156.95 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x242c…75bebacked No | 78c | 426.73$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…130dbacked Yes | 22c | 426.73$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 30cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 21c | 367$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.78 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 66c | 350$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.9 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 266$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.18 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…5680backed Yes | 21c | 236.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.68 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.8 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 77c | 170$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.1 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 22c | 154$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.12 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 24c | 137$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.12 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 78c | 136.36$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.71 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 24c | 105$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.1 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 157 | 39.5%62 W · 95 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed Yes | 30c | 82.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.21 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x887a…c778backed Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f97…10afbacked No | 78c | 80$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 21c | 75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.3 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa5…8f79backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb64…1585backed Yes | 22c | 46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c36…eaaebacked No | 78c | 46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…f8c4backed Yes | 54c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 79c | 37.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0e…b1febacked No | 80c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1118…1156backed No | 78c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…cc33backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2487…4f8bbacked No | 78c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2edd…56ddbacked No | 78c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbde4…4cc7backed No | 78c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8793…5e74backed No | 78c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Nosferatu' win Best Cinematography in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards?this page
- Will 'Conclave' win Best Cinematography in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards?No won
- Will 'Dune: Part Two' win Best Cinematography in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards?No won
- Will 'Nickel Boys' win Best Cinematography in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards?No won
- Will 'The Brutalist' win Best Cinematography in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.