Movies · resolved market
Will 'The Brutalist' win Best Cinematography in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d9febf014242ee5630a58277272fec763fc022111c4eb26f9685d099ab33f7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,917
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 64c | 2,690$1,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,720.09 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed No | 36c | 2,500$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed Yes | 77c | 2,468$1,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,911.48 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed No | 31c | 2,285$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,582.99 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f4c…b823backed Yes | 62c | 1,959$1,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,214.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c5…d103backed No | 38c | 1,959$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,214.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 61c | 651.9$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.7 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 62c | 299.99$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.8 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 63c | 284.54$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 63c | 269$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.91 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2625…b2f8backed No | 71c | 267$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.71 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed Yes | 56c | 210$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 38c | 150.63$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.77 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e21…0631backed No | 37c | 120$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked Yes | 54c | 115.67$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.54 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b4…4f8cbacked Yes | 63c | 102$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.38per pick | 52cpaid | -81%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…c6e0backed Yes | 60c | 94$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 36c | 75.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.57 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…2570backed No | 36c | 68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e0…bf01backed Yes | 64c | 66.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.87 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0d…4d64backed No | 36c | 66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5905…41abbacked Yes | 64c | 66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…f293backed Yes | 64c | 62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8c…9f0fbacked No | 31c | 57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 44cpaid | +150.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d34…1279backed Yes | 69c | 57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8433…5c3fbacked Yes | 62c | 51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff71…74bfbacked Yes | 65c | 50.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ca…680dbacked No | 38c | 43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cb…6e12backed No | 31c | 37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f26…e4c8backed Yes | 69c | 37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b63…4b44backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +67%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 45c | 36.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5db5…702dbacked No | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3544…fbd4backed No | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2b…095bbacked Yes | 53c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…8fbebacked Yes | 53c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca2…2a8ebacked No | 37c | 34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed No | 37c | 33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x259c…1766backed Yes | 64c | 33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07c…5409backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 36c | 30.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…baebbacked Yes | 63c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d45…b64abacked Yes | 63c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…7fffbacked No | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10f8…2bcbbacked Yes | 69c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcea…e78bbacked Yes | 65c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef4d…ca70backed Yes | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb5…d908backed Yes | 53c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe1…9430backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb045…5961backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6a…c05cbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3baa…31e4backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05c…25afbacked Yes | 62c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb00…56e1backed Yes | 69c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ae…56d7backed Yes | 62c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'The Brutalist' win Best Cinematography in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards?this page
- Will 'Conclave' win Best Cinematography in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards?No won
- Will 'Dune: Part Two' win Best Cinematography in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards?No won
- Will 'Nickel Boys' win Best Cinematography in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards?No won
- Will 'Nosferatu' win Best Cinematography in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.