Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 end of November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x135609c90704130ee716b9c182d1f24dcc997187d0b516841ed10d261decd8e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 26c | 5,600$1,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,121.94 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x978c…7e69backed No | 74c | 5,030$3,722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,721.9 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 6cpaid | +129.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 76c | 1,066$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.59 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 57c | 612.62$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.06 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 31c | 584.82$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.17 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadc6…d5e0backed No | 20c | 510$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.75 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +9.1wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +26%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 54c | 378.02$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.44 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…f944backed Yes | 59c | 319.92$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.48 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4c…ea0cbacked Yes | 12c | 272.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.13 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 32c | 184.38$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d65…beb4backed Yes | 28c | 144.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.57 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae2a…384dbacked Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe728…ee58backed No | 73c | 113.37$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 57c | 103.08$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.07 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -26.8wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 101.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.54 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.5 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +162.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed No | 72c | 92.96$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.93 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 59c | 77.17$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 56c | 74$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 58c | 73.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed No | 46c | 73.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +50%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 120 | 35%42 W · 78 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cd…e2efbacked Yes | 47c | 55.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a6…e0c2backed No | 71c | 55.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 78c | 50.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 75cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x969d…a956backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…2c1fbacked No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a8…d7b2backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f9…e350backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbfe…c0adbacked Yes | 41c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 64c | 28.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 293 | 23.2%68 W · 225 L | -31.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 72c | 26.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -22.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 44c | 25.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 62c | 24.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 66c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ab…1acbbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 end of November?this page
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 end of November?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 end of November?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 end of November?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $440 end of November?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $450 end of November?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $460 end of November?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $470 end of November?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $480 end of November?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $490 end of November?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $500 end of November?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $510 end of November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.