Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 end of November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d038d43ed1278635316dcc2d79a7cdc61a3a69cb5ff1423fbe913c47f5c8dde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,575
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,279
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,575 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 6,226$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.51 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 19c | 1,194$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.08 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…2d21backed No | 17c | 1,135$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked No | 14c | 1,046$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.61 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83f6…62f8backed Yes | 58c | 517.64$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 38c | 500$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.67 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…68d9backed No | 24c | 450.2$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 43c | 384.26$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.23 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 38c | 248.68$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.68 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 27c | 236.21$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.3 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -22.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 60c | 229.54$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.44 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 34c | 188.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed No | 14c | 158.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 32c | 149.85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 293 | 23.2%68 W · 225 L | -31.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 44c | 147.28$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.75 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79de…e4bebacked Yes | 74c | 135.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 45c | 130.88$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.62 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb2…79e2backed No | 48c | 126.35$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.65 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7b…74cdbacked No | 47c | 106.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab9…fd27backed No | 13c | 105.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…3e11backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…e011backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e74…54e7backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed No | 32c | 93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee8…3352backed No | 46c | 86.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe728…ee58backed Yes | 80c | 82.37$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13c5…a325backed No | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…81ddbacked Yes | 63c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 38c | 36.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f5…e977backed Yes | 70c | 28.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf94…5757backed Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 52c | 25.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a6…e0c2backed Yes | 52c | 20.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 62c | 18.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 end of November?this page
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 end of November?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 end of November?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 end of November?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $440 end of November?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $450 end of November?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $460 end of November?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $470 end of November?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $480 end of November?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $490 end of November?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $500 end of November?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $510 end of November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.