Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 end of November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48cfd07a635f346d5646144d3676484d30937229047f6de241be38e92d53d663
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,071
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,071 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked No | 21c | 1,055$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.79 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 75c | 900$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 30c | 617.58$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.33 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed No | 24c | 543.61$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.47 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +50%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 78c | 466.8$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.63 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 60c | 386.49$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.2 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 74c | 305$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.25 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 62c | 277.78$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.27 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 14c | 231.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed Yes | 46c | 199$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.99 | 232 | 53.4%124 W · 108 L | +18.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 50c | 175.94$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.63 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 52c | 172.86$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93f9…e350backed Yes | 80c | 160$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 54c | 156.12$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.12 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe728…ee58backed Yes | 71c | 138.5$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 23c | 114.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 46c | 105.02$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.81 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.67 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 93.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Yes | 52c | 90.46$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.28 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 45c | 89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.81 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…9b5cbacked No | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…8651backed Yes | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dea…5f90backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 48c | 66.25$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 85 | 24.7%21 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 37c | 54.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1a…0613backed No | 57c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…e011backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 53c | 49.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 38c | 40.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -22.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 53c | 32.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -26.8wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb2…79e2backed No | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3014…0780backed No | 73c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 end of November?this page
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 end of November?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 end of November?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 end of November?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $440 end of November?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $450 end of November?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $460 end of November?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $470 end of November?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $480 end of November?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $490 end of November?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $500 end of November?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $510 end of November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.