AI · resolved market
ChatGPT o3 released today?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a37939eff6e70da165aeae19f2f9d8aaeb3baa73f84f1436ceb48fe21797e98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x048a…eb07backed Yes | 69c | 2,212$1,526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.92 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 31c | 1,934$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.54 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +6.1wins | +0.36per pick | 41cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 32c | 1,220$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.66 | 99 | 15.2%15 W · 84 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f6…4cf4backed Yes | 7c | 791.97$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.54 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 14c | 658.24$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.76 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +59%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 16c | 467.15$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.57 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91b9…dcd8backed Yes | 41c | 447.01$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.56 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58df…0e05backed No | 25c | 366.08$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked No | 19c | 332.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.38 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 80c | 320$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 9c | 315$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…e310backed No | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 28c | 284$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.52 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.19per pick | 13cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 31c | 258$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 13cpaid | +104%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9d…446dbacked No | 10c | 160$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 76c | 133.13$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +111.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…8c3dbacked Yes | 28c | 124.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 33cpaid | +112%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed No | 46c | 124.17$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed9e…0d91backed No | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2b…7978backed No | 10c | 101.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x372b…c2b2backed No | 40c | 82.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44e6…e40dbacked No | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 17c | 74.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 60c | 62.8$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +8.1wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…0213backed Yes | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 80c | 44.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed Yes | 79c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x242c…1280backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47a9…80babacked Yes | 80c | 25.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.