TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Earnings · resolved market

Will Netflix (NFLX) beat quarterly earnings?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$64,178
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$77,224

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,178 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Earnings
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5172…0581backed Yes2c6,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120160%0 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb04…ec13backed No25c4,013$1,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,010.94250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+100.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4ba…68fabacked No21c3,300$692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,607.3813432.8%44 W · 90 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc31d…4ebebacked No18c2,830$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,324.471625%4 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+88.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc23b…24f9backed Yes75c2,000$1,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,497.6630%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a55…b632backed No15c2,000$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7003619.4%7 W · 29 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd00…4fc0backed Yes74c1,612$1,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.453542.9%15 W · 20 L-4.2wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-25.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c1,611$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1146314.3%66 W · 397 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdce0…5ba0backed No11c1,500$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,329.984613%6 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes12c1,166$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.92496.1%3 W · 46 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcebf…9e38backed Yes75c1,104$828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$828771.4%5 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick77cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb1…276cbacked No47c879.61$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.88580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+36.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed Yes19c736$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.84283.6%1 W · 27 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-70.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No19c734.31$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.251921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x707b…69f2backed Yes80c596.19$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.951850%9 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-29.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No13c545.59$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.6933025.2%83 W · 247 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19c0…38c8backed Yes75c533.33$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400560%3 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick76cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No20c521.45$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.9726334.6%91 W · 172 L-14.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0509…6e98backed No19c519.78$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.0220331.5%64 W · 139 L-14.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-27.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4b92…42e6backed No15c420.43$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.6612264.8%79 W · 43 L+15.2wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+14.6%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked No19c333.95$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.9517226.7%46 W · 126 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes70c305.79$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.5118941.3%78 W · 111 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa35…77d5backed Yes79c304.42$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24020%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes67c300$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2018516.5%14 W · 71 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd277…f4bcbacked Yes26c286$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0659…631cbacked No20c277.78$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.78250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+152.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73dc…8d32backed No60c244.37$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.655236.5%19 W · 33 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x173c…2236backed Yes75c238.63$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No28c214.91$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.621820.2%44 W · 174 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-21.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfceb…37dabacked No18c205.13$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.395520%11 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda53…9209backed Yes71c200$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.271752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+47.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95b2…49aabacked No15c200$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1702313%3 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8d5…d45abacked No52c183.45$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09da…6dffbacked No31c166.99$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.512025%5 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+39.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc71e…f450backed Yes75c150$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.54928.6%14 W · 35 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes66c150$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998048.8%39 W · 41 L+8.9wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+22.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x666d…a046backed No14c142.86$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.86per pick14cpaid+614.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b5c…2886backed Yes71c140.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2443…354cbacked Yes75c140$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick62cpaid+10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No21c138.98$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.218012.5%10 W · 70 L-7.5wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-61.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa557…d95cbacked No64c138.4$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.045156.9%29 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-11.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3904…0cafbacked Yes73c136.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100650%3 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-29.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xde35…0239backed No16c136.56$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.71825%2 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+103.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbda…4faebacked Yes75c133.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d9b…578cbacked No19c131.58$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.581118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick25cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0cd…45abbacked No16c130$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.27816.7%13 W · 65 L-0.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid+16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe86e…8642backed No25c121.32$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.321040%4 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+92.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9564…2973backed Yes16c120$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc25a…f243backed No23c117.04$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.561478.6%11 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick69cpaid+31.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x210c…2edabacked Yes74c115.41$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.831070%7 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+57.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes77c108.53$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.7111723.1%27 W · 90 L-18.3wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-50.6%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xbdc2…cd93backed Yes80c107.45$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes78c104.55$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.5576137.6%286 W · 475 L+35.5wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+20.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5908…cbc1backed No20c101.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.3966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+92%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1e2e…9deebacked No30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb00…e9c7backed No20c100$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+335.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf8c5…fdeabacked No22c100$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+93.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57ac…2d85backed Yes80c99.99$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804245.2%19 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93c4…dca6backed Yes80c99.99$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.712722.2%6 W · 21 L-4.0wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x245c…2486backed Yes68c97.43$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.25520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid+58.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x306a…ef1bbacked Yes78c87.68$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0910…ce1cbacked No18c83.88$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+459.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No13c79.65$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.2711032.7%36 W · 74 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc51…2bedbacked No27c74.07$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.07922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-43.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x49ff…9817backed Yes75c66.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb31e…d4b3backed Yes79c63.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501040%4 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-39%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf656…942bbacked Yes79c63.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x56f5…04e0backed Yes67c60.94$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a8b…6fc5backed Yes79c58$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6350…758abacked No18c56.91$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.92100%2 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+423.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x92af…dbe0backed No23c52.17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.171145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick26cpaid+89.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1a36…2491backed Yes79c50.63$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked No20c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid+25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef34…1d61backed Yes73c50$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.71546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd051…14cabacked Yes77c49.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09f2…f720backed No24c41.6$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.61631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick19cpaid+58.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x807b…d059backed Yes75c40$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6944…3902backed No28c39.29$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.292100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+141.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1867…549ebacked Yes75c33.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8d63…4422backed Yes75c33.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14e1…fd5dbacked Yes79c31.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x637a…17c7backed Yes79c30.82$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd53a…8dc7backed Yes78c30$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick64cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa359…a882backed No46c29.84$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+115.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6063…22cebacked Yes68c29.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb984…e881backed Yes70c28.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x902d…1f3fbacked Yes77c25.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205356.6%30 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe361…8a94backed Yes80c25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9db…2229backed Yes80c22.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4075…36fdbacked Yes52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.31040%4 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe3b8…0607backed Yes55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d8f…9cd1backed Yes76c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick78cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b96…7b25backed Yes80c12.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ce3…b304backed Yes80c12.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.