Space · resolved market
Will NASA estimate a 3% chance of asteroid hitting Earth?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62329d540852b0766ddbb976521db807aba01fc219fcd7ef33afe997a77af8df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,279
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,279 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 3c | 10,700$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8138…3c88backed Yes | 20c | 8,807$1,789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,017.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +392.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 67c | 7,023$4,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,283.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 18c | 4,444$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 64c | 3,332$2,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,146.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4b…4382backed Yes | 11c | 2,294$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,030.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +335.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x654b…dc29backed Yes | 20c | 2,023$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,621.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +403.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…c51cbacked Yes | 30c | 1,698$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,195.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +238.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 3c | 1,666$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 23c | 1,580$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,223.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 23c | 1,564$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,208.6 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6d…f860backed No | 71c | 1,466$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6f…bdcfbacked Yes | 22c | 1,278$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +360.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed No | 80c | 1,271$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 51cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 19c | 1,139$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918.22 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +152.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x141e…8c87backed No | 69c | 1,039$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a9…2700backed Yes | 18c | 746.77$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +185%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…6d3fbacked Yes | 25c | 612$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 30c | 600$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb0…a989backed Yes | 26c | 425.58$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +70%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3e…9c71backed Yes | 19c | 293.4$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +163.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 12c | 243.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b79…b3febacked Yes | 32c | 234.03$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +210.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Yes | 24c | 177.69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 171.53$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.09 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a0…eabdbacked Yes | 29c | 170$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5b…dbecbacked Yes | 16c | 169.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +539.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x600a…5e70backed No | 9c | 155$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe10b…5fe3backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +669.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad9c…e90cbacked No | 72c | 138.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c5…2336backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +515.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 17c | 120.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.86 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d10…dca1backed No | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff63…a2f8backed No | 73c | 119.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…b623backed Yes | 13c | 118.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.69 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +271.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca9…be8cbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d5…fbe0backed Yes | 19c | 106.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +432.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 69c | 104.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 19c | 100.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.08 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +127.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea3a…f78ebacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad7…86bfbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 20c | 93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 13c | 89.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.52 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 29c | 79.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.46 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…4d54backed Yes | 33c | 75.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +201.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 17c | 74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6497…922ebacked Yes | 15c | 72.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +562.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 23c | 72.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x059f…b483backed Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x154f…9a12backed Yes | 17c | 67.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13db…6c87backed Yes | 18c | 55.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…498abacked No | 66c | 55.29$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 70c | 43.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…4bdfbacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d27…b334backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.