Earnings · resolved market
Will MGM Resorts International (MGM) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a87743b2f49fe43f1da2eaff89597621b1ba2b3a80ec982da2fae5c9697eb5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,359
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,359 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 77c | 835.74$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.66 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 19c | 667.73$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.04 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 24c | 500$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed No | 17c | 499.98$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.99 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed Yes | 6c | 307$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbea…7662backed No | 13c | 296.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.3 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 24c | 200$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10bb…d49dbacked Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 102 | 72.5%74 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked No | 17c | 199.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.96 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 19c | 160.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.58 | 578 | 38.9%225 W · 353 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 21c | 144.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.19 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -18.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…e4e1backed No | 15c | 140$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked No | 14c | 86.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.02 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…a307backed No | 23c | 70$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 76c | 66.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed No | 24c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.