Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 49-50°F on November 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe214176d75d839788e48210e17a23ba6ca9149ae7e4fbe304931042cc0525ddd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,930
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,930 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad7b…80c9backed Yes | 15c | 2,979$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.72 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…d212backed Yes | 28c | 1,309$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.1 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e7…0788backed Yes | 17c | 970.26$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.93 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 870.18$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.57 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 25c | 835.08$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.82 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 15c | 785.55$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.56 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 12c | 743$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.78 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…7aafbacked Yes | 2c | 679.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec3…c303backed No | 67c | 626$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.84 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea02…23d1backed Yes | 12c | 611.85$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked No | 71c | 558$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.39 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 6c | 500$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 2c | 499.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc107…0137backed Yes | 15c | 439.46$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae2a…384dbacked Yes | 53c | 415.67$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe966…0228backed Yes | 33c | 402.37$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.49 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 6c | 373.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 8c | 350$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c1…c739backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 23c | 299.51$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.88 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 10c | 260.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 31c | 240.86$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.3 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…7f33backed Yes | 10c | 240$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 13c | 209.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73a6…8924backed Yes | 25c | 200.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed Yes | 16c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x02e4…f71cbacked No | 75c | 199.99$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 195$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 11c | 181$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e4…abdfbacked No | 65c | 180.37$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.21 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…d26abacked Yes | 27c | 180.34$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked No | 75c | 180$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf30…6a42backed Yes | 15c | 171.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 157.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 30c | 150.06$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.35 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 55c | 146.86$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.11 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae3c…ee83backed Yes | 33c | 135.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 126.71$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d3…6f76backed No | 72c | 125.35$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 9c | 122.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd49e…5110backed No | 33c | 120.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.94 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…6549backed Yes | 40c | 120$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked Yes | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa769…843ebacked Yes | 38c | 117.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…0274backed Yes | 23c | 113$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…5593backed No | 74c | 87.84$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa9…7d07backed No | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc90d…148dbacked Yes | 42c | 64.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca9b…217fbacked No | 47c | 56.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 56.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b8…dffcbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1401…0707backed No | 66c | 48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdda2…9bd7backed Yes | 29c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefbf…79f6backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 52c | 38.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…e36ebacked Yes | 37c | 31.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 37c | 28.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8607…2ccdbacked No | 77c | 26.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3342…fba2backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5438…7d1cbacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 49-50°F on November 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 55°F or higher on November 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on November 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 47-48°F on November 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 51-52°F on November 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 53-54°F on November 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.