Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 51-52°F on November 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70861dc1bf49dadd2282693cc853e69dc48ce5cec6faa628dc4536d2cbe3e9f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,459
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,483
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,459 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f57…7f33backed No | 51c | 996.02$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.43 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 59c | 835.08$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.79 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…9655backed Yes | 48c | 802.41$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.73 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5de1…6707backed Yes | 75c | 515.32$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.83 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 59c | 511.52$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.07 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 53c | 436.83$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.92 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 326.3$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.06 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked No | 39c | 285.72$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 63c | 279.51$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.53 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb1…0339backed Yes | 80c | 268.18$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.64 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 56cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 51c | 267.99$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.51 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 45c | 215.91$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.56 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf30…6a42backed Yes | 72c | 210.92$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.71 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd49e…5110backed Yes | 52c | 207.44$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.96 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…d26abacked Yes | 65c | 192.29$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.84 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa9…7d07backed Yes | 66c | 181.23$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.23 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 54c | 181.2$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.35 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e7…0788backed Yes | 53c | 181$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.29 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x302a…8227backed Yes | 47c | 159.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.3 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa170…1737backed Yes | 73c | 158.68$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c33…f130backed No | 63c | 158.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcae0…c7b0backed Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e4…abdfbacked Yes | 65c | 141.76$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…7828backed Yes | 80c | 125.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 35c | 122$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.18 | 207 | 28%58 W · 149 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 35c | 122$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.98 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…6549backed Yes | 44c | 107.6$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.6 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae2a…384dbacked Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 52c | 98.58$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.35 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 38c | 93.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.79 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 53c | 84.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.87 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…7aafbacked No | 21c | 73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 66.34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe004…7849backed Yes | 56c | 58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 34c | 51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab0…8963backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 51c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…0119backed Yes | 36c | 49.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c8…441dbacked Yes | 62c | 40.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c52…e75fbacked No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc90d…148dbacked Yes | 49c | 36.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…e36ebacked Yes | 43c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 39c | 31.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 65c | 30.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…9071backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…87adbacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…6a38backed Yes | 70c | 18.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 51-52°F on November 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 55°F or higher on November 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on November 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 47-48°F on November 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 49-50°F on November 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 53-54°F on November 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.