Earnings · resolved market
Will Smith & Wesson Brands (SWBI) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc85bf44c5b8ec7ad89186f29f2972f7afc03a5e17c5103f0603e1695a62e5de8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,460
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,460 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 10,807$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 5c | 3,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +5.5wins | +0.16per pick | 7cpaid | +324.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 43c | 599.98$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.99 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Yes | 47c | 514.45$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.19 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 56c | 299.98$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.99 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 50c | 295.57$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.29 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f4…bf68backed Yes | 47c | 213.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.92 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -8.2wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 41c | 192.68$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.68 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x211f…8e0fbacked Yes | 60c | 166.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.23 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes | 40c | 144$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…b14bbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfac…1eb7backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac58…39a8backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0a…9229backed Yes | 41c | 99.97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.98 | 115 | 66.1%76 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 52c | 87.43$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +44%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ab…8231backed Yes | 43c | 86.05$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.05 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 55c | 81.15$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 55c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68d8…af58backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x470d…b463backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…85dfbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked Yes | 48c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fbf…06b3backed Yes | 48c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +33%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb979…6297backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x961b…4210backed Yes | 49c | 30.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f3…6244backed No | 54c | 26.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e1…76b1backed Yes | 50c | 25.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e96…633fbacked No | 58c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ec…13acbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.