Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on November 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24cfeccf0f217f3b3707e122572666b9a5cd762b46c4ebe81ddcfa6faa646be6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 60c | 2,709$1,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,093.88 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca16…6277backed No | 47c | 1,702$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 10c | 765.42$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.4 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 449.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 5c | 415.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.15 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec4…fa49backed No | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 71c | 289.99$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.64 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf063…7893backed Yes | 30c | 261.1$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 7c | 243.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f5…b647backed No | 5c | 229.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed No | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf9…02f5backed Yes | 60c | 196$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.56 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Yes | 76c | 187.77$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 12c | 166$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.08 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 12c | 166$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.08 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 29c | 155.42$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.9 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 72c | 106.59$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…9071backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 19c | 70.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.79 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 58c | 58.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 69c | 40.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 64c | 34.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…8ac4backed Yes | 73c | 30.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 49c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffad…3bdfbacked Yes | 79c | 27.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5b…847ebacked Yes | 65c | 18.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on November 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 58°F or higher on November 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on November 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on November 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on November 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on November 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.