Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 58°F or higher on November 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96c1310fa7643da1eda8d70add5b8fbdefec61f57a3b723b6a41a4822c625ac0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,333
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,748
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,333 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,063$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 1c | 5,971$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.51 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 2c | 3,535$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.46 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf7…9189backed Yes | 2c | 3,354$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.54 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 1c | 1,550$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96f6…4144backed Yes | 1c | 1,191$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked No | 65c | 950.55$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.11 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dff…e1bdbacked Yes | 1c | 721.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 45c | 595.22$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.04 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d5…bcfdbacked Yes | 2c | 523.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57dd…6ab4backed Yes | 3c | 460$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 405.67$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.11 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…5fadbacked Yes | 28c | 387.44$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.65 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2914…6162backed Yes | 3c | 347.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 55c | 285.47$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.2 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 26c | 273.72$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.07 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55e4…bf8abacked Yes | 36c | 272.35$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.12 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1f…6a84backed Yes | 6c | 223.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.2 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 42c | 182.11$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.71 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 112.98$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34a…8251backed No | 62c | 104.43$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.43 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2c…4187backed No | 65c | 102.25$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 20c | 97.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 207 | 28%58 W · 149 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa52…3560backed Yes | 25c | 95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 52c | 75.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…8ac4backed Yes | 30c | 66.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf9…02f5backed No | 80c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a22…8757backed Yes | 35c | 57.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Yes | 21c | 51.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…81bdbacked Yes | 48c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5b…847ebacked No | 80c | 33.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd63c…c0fabacked Yes | 32c | 31.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…db3cbacked Yes | 53c | 27.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0101…27c8backed No | 79c | 25.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2203…a693backed Yes | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd089…88e6backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 58°F or higher on November 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on November 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on November 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on November 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on November 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on November 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.