UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Will Zhang win by KO/TKO/DQ?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x429514fff8ddd9426ff1d1981ad18f9e1bf54f9e72200652756a8621b3853ad9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x843d…e617backed No | 30c | 2,631$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,841.77 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Yes | 70c | 2,000$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 77c | 1,560$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.87 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +23.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed No | 29c | 1,048$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.81 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebc3…2626backed Yes | 71c | 1,000$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 30c | 999.97$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.98 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 16c | 874$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.84 | 61 | 9.8%6 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa941…ec2ebacked Yes | 70c | 828.49$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.66 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…2aaebacked Yes | 70c | 668.61$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.41 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 69c | 657.48$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.66 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 31c | 615$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.35 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf635…e876backed No | 30c | 492.62$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.22 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 17c | 470$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.9 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +291.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed No | 31c | 442.18$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Yes | 69c | 405.8$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…c514backed No | 31c | 397.93$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.59 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 68c | 382.37$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.51 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6579…088bbacked Yes | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.41per pick | 58cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 29c | 229.33$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.12 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 70c | 172.54$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.78 | 367 | 55.3%203 W · 164 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…abb3backed Yes | 70c | 171.43$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5f…8812backed Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2af9…7816backed Yes | 70c | 140.4$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…538abacked Yes | 72c | 129.33$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.12 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 31c | 120$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab43…f7b3backed Yes | 69c | 99.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 160 | 58.8%94 W · 66 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf666…656cbacked Yes | 70c | 81$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x749e…8626backed No | 31c | 66.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.29 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed No | 32c | 59.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdef…b15ebacked Yes | 71c | 49.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.6wins | -0.45per pick | 58cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 29c | 49.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd812…7efebacked Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95c9…00e4backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f22…be14backed Yes | 69c | 26.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -4.0wins | -0.28per pick | 64cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 65c | 18.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Will Zhang win by KO/TKO/DQ?this page
- UFC Fight Night: Will Walker win by KO/TKO/DQ?Yes won
- UFC Fight Night: Will Walker win by decision?No won
- UFC Fight Night: Will Zhang win by decision?No won
- UFC Fight Night: Will Zhang win by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.