Us Midterms · resolved market
Will either Cuomo or Mamdani concede by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f04653573b4e23318b0d4074c81fb2c1bdb16929a36dbf4025f68c34ae50f80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,444
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,215
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,444 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Yes | 14c | 4,983$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,278.6 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 53c | 4,959$2,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,312.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b36…0800backed Yes | 14c | 3,765$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,253.61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 13cpaid | +581.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 57c | 3,422$1,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,955.03 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cec…ea91backed Yes | 13c | 2,156$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,875.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +669.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed No | 36c | 2,000$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 56c | 1,530$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.45 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,023$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 494 | 11.5%57 W · 437 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 13c | 665.28$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.43 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 16c | 598.72$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.55per pick | 11cpaid | +424.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 12c | 530.38$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.65 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 38c | 419.89$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.59 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02e6…c14ebacked Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea6…b249backed No | 58c | 220.27$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +331.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefa8…c82bbacked Yes | 29c | 197$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 11c | 182.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.75 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed Yes | 38c | 175$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd124…b1c6backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…2e60backed Yes | 17c | 95.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +478.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 60c | 82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc30c…6509backed No | 63c | 79.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9b…b8fdbacked Yes | 34c | 54.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will either Cuomo or Mamdani concede by Friday?this page
- Will either Cuomo or Mamdani concede by July 4?Yes won
- Will either Cuomo or Mamdani concede by Wednesday?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.